[AurN] perfectlyGoodInk
Aurora Clan Moderator
Posts: 729
Karma: 556
Platform: Android
Clan: leader of Aurora Nova [AurN]
League: Gold
Server Region: North America
Favorite robot: Bishop from Aliens, although WALL-E is a close second
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Post by [AurN] perfectlyGoodInk on Dec 26, 2016 10:33:23 GMT -5
1500 is a very large sample size,and subject to the data being skewed by outlyers It's the other way around. Small sample sizes are more susceptible to being unrepresentative of the population due to outliers. If you are sampling the heights of high school kids, and with a sample size of 10, you get one kid that's over six feet tall, the sample's mean and median are likely to be higher than that of the population because six foot high school kids are outliers and do not occur in 10% of the population. You just got lucky (or unlucky). With a sample size of 1500, you will get a much more accurate picture of how often six foot high school kids really occur, and your sample statistics will be far more representative of the population. Also, skew is irrelevant here, pertaining to the shape of the distribution (e.g., skewed right means a long right tail and the median is closer to the left side). You generally don't take outliers into account when determining skew.
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[AurN] perfectlyGoodInk
Aurora Clan Moderator
Posts: 729
Karma: 556
Platform: Android
Clan: leader of Aurora Nova [AurN]
League: Gold
Server Region: North America
Favorite robot: Bishop from Aliens, although WALL-E is a close second
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Post by [AurN] perfectlyGoodInk on Dec 26, 2016 13:57:39 GMT -5
1500 is a very large sample size,and subject to the data being skewed by outlyers You generally don't take outliers into account when determining skew. Sorry, this was incorrect/inexact. When measuring skew mathematically via measures such as skewness, you usually take all data points into account, including outliers. When visually determining skew, it's the overall shape of all the data that matters, including outliers. What I meant is that an outlier on the right doesn't make the distribution skewed right, or vice versa. Removing or ignoring outliers is not good practice, and I did not mean to suggest otherwise. A model that fails to explain the most extraordinary individuals not that good a model.
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Post by thalandar on Dec 26, 2016 16:49:06 GMT -5
Wow arguing for sake of arguing. The world is flat and on a turtles back. O yea and that alien religion is the only right one.
Now jester u have more material to argue over once u eventually concide to current circle fight.
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SwitcherLP
Destrier
Just a little bot trying to make it in a big bot's world...
Posts: 121
Karma: 80
Pilot name: Switcher Legendary Pilot
Platform: Android
Clan: [IRΩN] Formerly
League: Master
Server Region: North America
Favorite robot: Storm Nemesis
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Post by SwitcherLP on Dec 26, 2016 20:15:01 GMT -5
For what it is worth, I am also trying out the opening one chest at a time. I was previously opening one at a time as I earned 10 snowflakes, and was getting almost nothing but silver. Then I tried opening a minimum of 5 chests at a time. I was getting better rates by doing that, and had won a Lancelot and a Zeus in this format, as well as many silver bots and weapons. But then an interesting thing occurred, starting about 3-4 days ago, where I got nothing better than 5 Au prizes, while I was getting 5-20 Au prizes usually every 3 chests at least. So I have been trying opening one chest at a time, and immediately after starting the app. I have found an extremely high tendency to claim 15 Au prizes, where I have gotten so far at a rate of nearly 66%. I have a very small sample size, so you may take that as you will.
I have a lot of experience with RNG from the PTCGO game, which nearly all game mechanics are based upon the RNG, and the algorithms in that game are HIGHLY affected by outside occurrences-like server load, computer/internet speed/response time, and likely many other reasons. I found that opening packs in that game had a much better yield during a time where you were experiencing positive RNG in-game. So what I am getting at is it seems that this is the "sweet spot". I am in no way definitively saying this is true, as I have not obtained a bot or weapon this way yet, but I have gotten nothing worse than 50k Ag. This is too much to ignore in my honest opinion.
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Post by mechbond on Dec 26, 2016 20:27:31 GMT -5
Hey all! I can confirm this as being true and I don't know if it's been mentioned before but if you play 2 games and then open your chest, you will have same results (assuming 5 snowflakes per game) as opening and closing the game. This is a fact. Opening and closing a game is way faster if you have a lot of snowflakes. What is pissing me off is, as some of you might know when the event opened I quickly got 7600 snowflakes to open a superchest and got what I got BUT had I known this I could have earned 5K+ more gold than I actually did, this is a 5K bot or 2 Galahads. Feel a bit ripped off Basically, if you buy 2300 snowflakes and open then right away 50 at a time you'll get around 500-600 gold. If you do one at a time and open/close game you will earn 3 times that! Plus a lot more bots/weapons.
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Post by Fιεχροιητ™ on Dec 26, 2016 22:21:08 GMT -5
Hey all! I can confirm this as being true and I don't know if it's been mentioned before but if you play 2 games and then open your chest, you will have same results (assuming 5 snowflakes per game) as opening and closing the game. This is a fact. Opening and closing a game is way faster if you have a lot of snowflakes. What is pissing me off is, as some of you might know when the event opened I quickly got 7600 snowflakes to open a superchest and got what I got BUT had I known this I could have earned 5K+ more gold than I actually did, this is a 5K bot or 2 Galahads. Feel a bit ripped off Basically, if you buy 2300 snowflakes and open then right away 50 at a time you'll get around 500-600 gold. If you do one at a time and open/close game you will earn 3 times that! Plus a lot more bots/weapons. Yep. For those who work hard (closing app over and over and over again) get rewarded!
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Post by Deadalready on Dec 27, 2016 4:06:51 GMT -5
I'm pretty confident that the trick works, I haven't seen a single 1,2,3,5 au prize, 5k silver or molot/punisher prize in nearly 50 draws. While I haven't gotten any epic draws my prize log is evidence of better than normal drops.
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Post by CΛΜΡΞΓ™ on Dec 27, 2016 4:14:42 GMT -5
I'm pretty confident that the trick works, I haven't seen a single 1,2,3,5 au prize, 5k silver or molot/punisher prize in nearly 50 draws. While I haven't gotten any epic draws my prize log is evidence of better than normal drops. was my 1500 chest openings not enough evidence?
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Post by Deadalready on Dec 27, 2016 6:33:49 GMT -5
I'm pretty confident that the trick works, I haven't seen a single 1,2,3,5 au prize, 5k silver or molot/punisher prize in nearly 50 draws. While I haven't gotten any epic draws my prize log is evidence of better than normal drops. was my 1500 chest openings not enough evidence? Good evidence can be corroborated and comes from multiple sources
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Post by Trogon on Dec 27, 2016 10:06:31 GMT -5
I'm pretty confident that the trick works, I haven't seen a single 1,2,3,5 au prize, 5k silver or molot/punisher prize in nearly 50 draws. While I haven't gotten any epic draws my prize log is evidence of better than normal drops. was my 1500 chest openings not enough evidence? This is just one more anecdote, but I pretty much open my chests one at a time as I earn the snowflakes. And I have hardly any low money prizes. Without bothering with the open/closing the app method. I think my only 1au prizes were from a time I opened like 8 chests at once. I'm not sure I have any 5k silver chests. So this may just be they've adjusted the prizes for single chests. Or it could just be that those low chests don't appear very often in the distribution. From a programming standpoint, it would not be hard at all to simply exclude certain prizes from single-chest openings vs multiple. Or the first chest after starting the app, for that matter. I agree with those that say we don't really have anything that would be acceptable as a valid scientific study proving the theory. But it seems like there may be enough anecdotal evidence that it can't hurt to open one chest at a time, since the costs are minimal. Based on my experience, I wouldn't bother with the closing the app thing, but do whatever makes you feel good.
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xlr8in
Destrier
Posts: 22
Karma: 5
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Post by xlr8in on Dec 27, 2016 12:41:26 GMT -5
I have opened 2 super chests now and on the way to the 3rd.
First chest was in the 50chest increments. I got a orkan and rhino and the superchest gave me a Lancelot.
The secondchest I opened again in 50 chest increments. Didn't get a single gold item. Best item was 1 aphid. Superchrst gave me a galahad.
I'm 3/4s to my 3rd chest. Opened all with singles and closing app. I can confirm the gold and silver prizes are substantially better. I net about 1800 gold and 10m silver from 2300 flakes. So far my best prize has been a gepard.
TLDR - opening single and closing is more profitable. Receiving a gold prize this way has yet to be seen.
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Post by CΛΜΡΞΓ™ on Dec 27, 2016 14:04:13 GMT -5
Based on my experience, I wouldn't bother with the closing the app thing, but do whatever makes you feel good. i have tried opening the chests 1 by 1 without closing app, the rewards are not as good
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callen0942
Destrier
Posts: 19
Karma: 3
Pilot name: CALLEN0942
Platform: iOS
Clan: SAVAGE
League: Champion
Server Region: North America
Favorite robot: Tulumba Spector
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Post by callen0942 on Dec 27, 2016 14:25:56 GMT -5
Good to know. I will try tonight.
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Post by ⓣⓡⓘⓒⓚⓨ48 on Dec 27, 2016 14:28:15 GMT -5
One more voice:
The only "good" bots I got were from 10 chest multiple opens... both after immediately logging in.
However, when opening 1 at a time with either the app close/open or right after a battle method, the prizes have significantly more value than if you just kept opening chests without doing either of those. I have tried multiple times with each method.
I am not going to give the number of chests opened because i don't know... but I can say, definitively, that I either got a bot that could be sold for 100k, a weapon for 50k, or Au prizes ranging from 15 to 100.
My conclusion is that getting the "BIG" prizes are not as likely (if they are possible at all, but I have no way to verify that) when opening/closing, but the base value of the prizes won are much higher. Guaranteed. Even when I get a CRV Pin, it is sold for 56k or 58k AG (can't remember exactly). And that a multi open, first draw after login, is more likely to result in a "good" bot or item.
BTW - I listed in the "What have you won thread" what the "good" bots were... but, here, for simplicity: 1 Gala and 1 Jesse.
Make of it what you will... or don't.
Cheers.
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Post by zman on Dec 27, 2016 16:53:10 GMT -5
$5 for math!
Ok, decided to test this little theory.
I ran four test of the single chest open after closed app.
Test #1 767k Ag + 40Au Worst Prizes: 58k Ag Weapon/20Au Best Prizes:116k Ag Weapon/20Au Test #2 802k Ag + 150Au Worst Prizes: 50k Ag/15Au Best Prizes: 200k Ag/100Au Test #3 982k Ag + 35Au Worst Prizes: 50k Ag/15Au Best Prizes: 500k Ag/20Au Test #4 681k Ag +115Au Worst Prizes: 50k Ag/15Au Best Prizes: 200k Ag/100Au
Worst prizes out of 40 opens were 50k Ab/15Au
I ran a single batch of opening ten chests simultaneously after a restart
Text #5 60k Ag + 59Au Worst Prizes: 5k Ag/1Au Best Prizes 50k Ag/20Au
Out of one batch of simultaneous opens 6/10 opens were worse than the worst opens in the single open after closed ap test.
Mathematically speaking this is pretty concrete. The odds that 6/10 chests in one method being worse than any of the opens in a batch of 40 is pretty high, high enough that I'm not going to spend anymore money to prove that this is indeed a method to increase your average gains, or at least greatly increase your minimum prize for each open and results in a lot more silver, and likely more gold on average. Also, this essentially flushed all of my crap opens from my prize log.
One caveat, I have absolutely no data on the rare opens and there is not enough data to say that the fresh open method improves your odds of drawing a rare pick, but there is enough evidence to say with confidence that it drastically raises the low end of your draws and likely(barring increased rare draws among mass opens which could raise the average haul) drastically increases your average haul.
Also have enough information to conclude the golden prize bar is indeed logrythmic and definitely slows down.
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b4you
Destrier
Posts: 112
Karma: 47
Platform: iOS
League: Diamond
Server Region: North America
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Post by b4you on Dec 28, 2016 13:32:11 GMT -5
I suspect that the difference is tied to the single chest vs multi chest button. I have never gotten single Au (1-9) or Ag less than 50k opening single chests. I have tried both single chest with and without closing the app and have NOT seen a difference in rewards. It looks like only people who open multiple chest are seeing the low Au rewards.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2016 13:50:42 GMT -5
I suspect that the difference is tied to the single chest vs multi chest button. I have never gotten single Au (1-9) or Ag less than 50k opening single chests. I have tried both single chest with and without closing the app and have NOT seen a difference in rewards. It looks like only people who open multiple chest are seeing the low Au rewards. Definitely not the case for me - today I opened one chest (20 gold) immediately followed by another (1 gold).
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Post by ⓣⓡⓘⓒⓚⓨ48 on Dec 28, 2016 15:18:29 GMT -5
I suspect that the difference is tied to the single chest vs multi chest button. I have never gotten single Au (1-9) or Ag less than 50k opening single chests. I have tried both single chest with and without closing the app and have NOT seen a difference in rewards. It looks like only people who open multiple chest are seeing the low Au rewards. Definitely not the case for me - today I opened one chest (20 gold) immediately followed by another (1 gold). Agreed... I have seen plenty of single open chests that are the crap prizes... PLENTY. IDK what b4 is doing but hey... if it works for him...
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Post by Fιεχροιητ™ on Dec 28, 2016 15:23:27 GMT -5
I suspect that the difference is tied to the single chest vs multi chest button. I have never gotten single Au (1-9) or Ag less than 50k opening single chests. I have tried both single chest with and without closing the app and have NOT seen a difference in rewards. It looks like only people who open multiple chest are seeing the low Au rewards. Definitely not the case for me - today I opened one chest (20 gold) immediately followed by another (1 gold). Closing the app is the only way
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b4you
Destrier
Posts: 112
Karma: 47
Platform: iOS
League: Diamond
Server Region: North America
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Post by b4you on Dec 28, 2016 16:36:29 GMT -5
I suspect that the difference is tied to the single chest vs multi chest button. I have never gotten single Au (1-9) or Ag less than 50k opening single chests. I have tried both single chest with and without closing the app and have NOT seen a difference in rewards. It looks like only people who open multiple chest are seeing the low Au rewards. Definitely not the case for me - today I opened one chest (20 gold) immediately followed by another (1 gold). Guess I have just gotten lucky so far.
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Post by jazzykat on Dec 28, 2016 17:22:12 GMT -5
I always opened them 1 at a time. For the most part I opened a chest after I got enough snowflakes and then closed out of the game and different something else. So for the majority of chests I only opened 1 for each session. I finally won a Magnum but I got gold of no less than 15 increments and the silver was of reasonable portions. I never received the tiny prizes.
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Post by nightmarepatrol on Dec 28, 2016 17:35:36 GMT -5
Well, we don't have an established baseline nor do we a legitimate data sample or a verifiable means of gathering or verifying said sample. All that being said there is a great deal of validity to the two sets of prize pools and the "incentive" to get people interested in getting in on what everyone else is winning. (ie. buy snow flakes)
I doubt Pix will be forthcoming about this process so all we'll be doing is speculating about it. I seem to be having better results with the one-off spins, but I'm cashing in my snow flakes as I get them and doing the exit the game thing. I guess it's paying off.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2016 18:26:19 GMT -5
I too have experienced the 15 Au or better reward on the first spin after starting the game. This allows Au, Ag, "green" weapons and medium bots to be collected in volume. But I've experienced another pattern that ties to this. If I start the game and make 10 spins, I usually get the following:
First spin - good Second spin - bad Third spin - good Fourth spin - bad Fifth spin - bad Sixth spin - good Seventh spin - bad Eighth spin - bad Ninth spin - bad Tenth spin - good
It looks like in number of bad spins (or maybe just random spins weighted towards poor results) between guaranteed good results increases by one each time in the sequence. I've tried this a number of times (start game, buy 100 flakes, start spinning) and it keeps coming up the same. Perhaps its just coincidence, but my feeling is that there isn't all that much randomness going on with the reward wheel.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2016 18:34:32 GMT -5
was my 1500 chest openings not enough evidence? Good evidence can be corroborated and comes from multiple sources I've gotten so far: 1 zeus 500K silver Bunch of Pattons, Boas and 1 Golem (all sold). 2 sets of 100 gold. Lots of 50K, 100K and 200K silver. Lots of 15, 20 gold. Never got anything worse than 15 gold using the trick while when I opened 20 at once, the prizes were much worse
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Post by ł⸰§ĦȺĐ◎ŴƧŦḀɌ on Dec 28, 2016 19:23:29 GMT -5
I too have experienced the 15 Au or better reward on the first spin after starting the game. This allows Au, Ag, "green" weapons and medium bots to be collected in volume. But I've experienced another pattern that ties to this. If I start the game and make 10 spins, I usually get the following: First spin - good Second spin - bad Third spin - good Fourth spin - bad Fifth spin - bad Sixth spin - good Seventh spin - bad Eighth spin - bad Ninth spin - bad Tenth spin - good It looks like in number of bad spins (or maybe just random spins weighted towards poor results) between guaranteed good results increases by one each time in the sequence. I've tried this a number of times (start game, buy 100 flakes, start spinning) and it keeps coming up the same. Perhaps its just coincidence, but my feeling is that there isn't all that much randomness going on with the reward wheel. I'm not trying to say if you are correct or not, but that is too small of a sample size to come to that level of a conclusion. The human brain is so good at pattern recognition, it can sometimes see patterns that aren't really there. In high order mathmatics, when dealing with visualizations of truly random data sets, most folks will see 'clustering' patterns. This is because visually, we expect to see an even distribution of data points in a random set, but that's not how reality works, and what we see as clustering is just a false-positive alert from our pattern recognition centers. For example, flip a coin 100 times, and you will see some chains of the same result, like several head results in a row. This could lead you to the conclusion that flipping the coin 5 times in a row and getting all tail results will mean the next flip should be a head result. This is also known as the Gambler's Fallacy, but in reality every single coin flip has the exact same odds, 50/50 of each result. Same for dice, a 6-sided die has exactly 1 in 6 odds of a desired result, nothing else matters (unless the die in question was made with a bias, of course). All that said, we do NOT have anything resembling a fair coin toss with Pixo's random draw event. They are clearly using manipulative gambling-addict tactics, as evidenced by the 'you almost won this good thing' prize wheel animation and the anecdotally proven 'first draw has better odds' effect. Let's apply a little of Occam's Razor here. Which is simpler, that Pixo created a random draw event with some specific known tactics to encourage addictive gambling effects, or that they created a very complicated random draw system that grants you improved 'weight' to your odds as you draw crappy results from the prize pool, starting with an initial 'good' draw? Just sayin'
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2016 21:35:11 GMT -5
You generally don't take outliers into account when determining skew. Sorry, this was incorrect/inexact. When measuring skew mathematically via measures such as skewness, you usually take all data points into account, including outliers. When visually determining skew, it's the overall shape of all the data that matters, including outliers. What I meant is that an outlier on the right doesn't make the distribution skewed right, or vice versa. Removing or ignoring outliers is not good practice, and I did not mean to suggest otherwise. A model that fails to explain the most extraordinary individuals not that good a model. 1. I never stated that one only took some numbers into account. Outliers are part of the resulting data. 2. I stated outliers not an outlier. 3. Saying removing or ignoring outliers is not good practice is garbage. Doing so is called manipulating the data, which is what people do when they dont end up with results they want. 4. Too big and too small both have their problems. 5. In the end, take 30 chests with the app shut down, and 30 without it shut down, That gives you your alternative and null hypothesis. If you know stats, you should know 30 is a perfectly suitable number, its the minimum required number to be able to determine if your results are significant. I never mentioned 10 or the like. 6. Just because something is viewed by some as extraordinary does not make it an accurate representation. Im sure you couldnt resist trying to start another pissing contest, argument, flame war, or just be difficult with me. You only took this to task,because I didnt mention minimum numbers needed for a sample, and/or you really like outliers. Next time you wanna try and school someone, make sure its someone who doesnt calculate his stats (including his sum of squares) with a calculator, pencil, and paper, then checks his results with Excel. Im sure you will come up will all kinds of neat stuff to say. Have fun playing with yourself.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2016 21:39:44 GMT -5
Im doing 30 with, and 30 w/o. 10 more to go with the app shut down, Only 2 bad results so far, 2 Noricums. Aside from that a fair number of 15 gold, some higher gold, 500000 silver, and 6 Boas - 2 today, and 4 yesterday. Sold em for silver.
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loneshiva
Destrier
Posts: 42
Karma: 18
Pilot name: [SAF] Ioneshiva
Platform: Android
Clan: SAF
League: Silver
Favorite robot: Boa (gonna love to give it to them in the FACE)
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Post by loneshiva on Dec 29, 2016 1:44:26 GMT -5
I've noticed a definite improvement in my winning with an even simpler action than the eternal-restart procedure... Believe the Prize Log! According to that list my last 6 wins were: Patton Thunder Vityaz 100Au Boa Golem Absolutely nothing like the truth!!! Yes I did win these but certainly not last 6.It's simply cherry picking the most valuable recent prizes and placing them on top making it appear better than it is. Scroll down and it reveals just as many Noricums, 5k Ag, 1Au and cheap wins. Its all welcome freebies but once again it's Trickery. And before any comments I have also had runs of chests where the lowest rewards were 15Au/100kAg/Weapon/Bot. If the wins are random then it'll happen and one streak counts for nothing. Its not just a one streak count. I'll could again provide my most 50 recent loot again. and its easily a 100 try sample run. Its definitely not just a list where its overlapping my old list of 50 recent item. My activity for last 10 day is at 1900+, so i roll a lot. Picture speak a thousand word so here are some proof and a small video of my recent 50 loot. showing my nick and stuff. Cheers Most recent 50 loot, slightly older video of recent loot and the first 50 recent loot i make (i just started the open one box and restarting so the loot at the end still sucks) Hope it does help you in the end whether if it really help or not. But i'm sure it does. So does lots of other people.
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loneshiva
Destrier
Posts: 42
Karma: 18
Pilot name: [SAF] Ioneshiva
Platform: Android
Clan: SAF
League: Silver
Favorite robot: Boa (gonna love to give it to them in the FACE)
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Post by loneshiva on Dec 29, 2016 1:51:30 GMT -5
Im doing 30 with, and 30 w/o. 10 more to go with the app shut down, Only 2 bad results so far, 2 Noricums. Aside from that a fair number of 15 gold, some higher gold, 500000 silver, and 6 Boas - 2 today, and 4 yesterday. Sold em for silver. Actually if you sold Noricum which will net ya 58k silver. Its still pretty good compare to other silver reward which i had gotten. There are a few which are pretty bad compare to noricum. Namely 5k , 12k and 20k silver/ag reward. And during can assure you that you won't be getting any silver reward that is lesser than 50k silver , lesser than 15 au and finally bot or wpn that is worth lesser than 50k silver. Cheers and happy rolling or shall i say opening lol.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2016 2:42:34 GMT -5
I too have experienced the 15 Au or better reward on the first spin after starting the game. This allows Au, Ag, "green" weapons and medium bots to be collected in volume. But I've experienced another pattern that ties to this. If I start the game and make 10 spins, I usually get the following: First spin - good Second spin - bad Third spin - good Fourth spin - bad Fifth spin - bad Sixth spin - good Seventh spin - bad Eighth spin - bad Ninth spin - bad Tenth spin - good It looks like in number of bad spins (or maybe just random spins weighted towards poor results) between guaranteed good results increases by one each time in the sequence. I've tried this a number of times (start game, buy 100 flakes, start spinning) and it keeps coming up the same. Perhaps its just coincidence, but my feeling is that there isn't all that much randomness going on with the reward wheel. I'm not trying to say if you are correct or not, but that is too small of a sample size to come to that level of a conclusion. The human brain is so good at pattern recognition, it can sometimes see patterns that aren't really there. In high order mathmatics, when dealing with visualizations of truly random data sets, most folks will see 'clustering' patterns. This is because visually, we expect to see an even distribution of data points in a random set, but that's not how reality works, and what we see as clustering is just a false-positive alert from our pattern recognition centers. For example, flip a coin 100 times, and you will see some chains of the same result, like several head results in a row. This could lead you to the conclusion that flipping the coin 5 times in a row and getting all tail results will mean the next flip should be a head result. This is also known as the Gambler's Fallacy, but in reality every single coin flip has the exact same odds, 50/50 of each result. Same for dice, a 6-sided die has exactly 1 in 6 odds of a desired result, nothing else matters (unless the die in question was made with a bias, of course). All that said, we do NOT have anything resembling a fair coin toss with Pixo's random draw event. They are clearly using manipulative gambling-addict tactics, as evidenced by the 'you almost won this good thing' prize wheel animation and the anecdotally proven 'first draw has better odds' effect. Let's apply a little of Occam's Razor here. Which is simpler, that Pixo created a random draw event with some specific known tactics to encourage addictive gambling effects, or that they created a very complicated random draw system that grants you improved 'weight' to your odds as you draw crappy results from the prize pool, starting with an initial 'good' draw? Just sayin' I am very familiar with the concepts you mentioned, having a masters in stats to go along with my PhD in barbarian swordsmanship, but if you are on android then please start the game, buy 100 flakes and then do 10 spins. Your 1st, 3rd, 6th and 10th rewards will either be green tagged or 15+ Au... On my device, that happens without fail.
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