|
Post by ł⸰§ĦȺĐ◎ŴƧŦḀɌ on Dec 24, 2016 20:52:16 GMT -5
j3st3r You are also succumbing to a disbelief bias and refusing to acknowledge the evidence presented. I expected to get 1 Au, 2 Au, or 3 Au prizes in the last 20 draws, but have not since I started relaunching the game before each draw. The evidence I encountered refuted my premise. Now what? Let me start of by saying that confirmation bias is a legitimate term whereas youve just made up disbelief bias. Go google it and educate yourself. The "evidence" you seem to think i am ignoring is because it is not evidence at all. Its heresay anecdotal bogus nothing. your 20 spins are about as useless as 「huge tracts of land」 on a bull. By your very same logic i have got 2 furies and 4 zeus. Multiple tarans and mags from using multi open spi s therefore everyone should use it. Its not real data im just sorry to say. Thats why i ignore it. Ok, you are trolling. Good bye right-fighter. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belief_biasen.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_biasweb.cn.edu/kwheeler/fallacies_list.html
|
|
j3st3r
Destrier
Posts: 10
Karma: 2
|
Post by j3st3r on Dec 24, 2016 21:02:55 GMT -5
Trolling... far from it. I think you just look for drama lately.
Im going to bow out of this thread as you so clearly want to believe in this glitch that youll attack me personally for bringing what you so desperately want to be real into question.
|
|
Asturias
Destrier
Posts: 65
Karma: 78
Pilot name: ᴀsτυяιαs ẕωєι ⚙
Platform: iOS
|
Post by Asturias on Dec 24, 2016 21:10:24 GMT -5
Its not real data im just sorry to say. Thats why i ignore it. Are you just going to ignore the guy who ran a 1500 sample size and came up with the same results, then?
|
|
|
Post by WE034 on Dec 24, 2016 21:19:02 GMT -5
It's Christmas Eve, good will towards one another. I hope you all have some nog, or cider or hot chocolate, whatever your libation of choice, is.
|
|
|
Post by CΛΜΡΞΓ™ on Dec 24, 2016 21:21:09 GMT -5
WE034 it doesn't work like that though
|
|
j3st3r
Destrier
Posts: 10
Karma: 2
|
Post by j3st3r on Dec 24, 2016 21:29:07 GMT -5
Its not real data im just sorry to say. Thats why i ignore it. Are you just going to ignore the guy who ran a 1500 sample size and came up with the same results, then? Was there also 1500 done in multi opens to compare the results.... or was it just assumed that the results would be worse.......... thought so.
|
|
|
Post by WE034 on Dec 24, 2016 21:37:48 GMT -5
It breaks my heart to read the slings and arrows of two obviously extremely intelligent persons discussing an interesting subject, at one another. I, as an observer, would like to follow your reasoned discourse for my own knowledge and learning. Nothing is to be gained by anyone with this continued exchange as is. So, for an lesser person who quests knowledge from you, please, continue.
I wonder if all the discussion, if we haven't tainted further data with conformation bias now. I must say, I did the close and open thing and seems to be working, but may be I deluded myself.
|
|
|
Post by CΛΜΡΞΓ™ on Dec 24, 2016 21:38:18 GMT -5
Are you just going to ignore the guy who ran a 1500 sample size and came up with the same results, then? Was there also 1500 done in multi opens to compare the results.... or was it just assumed that the results would be worse.......... thought so. guess what? I opened 200 chests with the multi-open and got a bunch of 1au and punishers ect, none of which did I receive from the individual opening method. Do you really think I would spend hours opening chests mindlessly without testing if it actually WORKS first? I don't actually care for your answer.
|
|
|
Post by ΜΣƬΔƬΓΘ∏ on Dec 24, 2016 22:12:04 GMT -5
Are you just going to ignore the guy who ran a 1500 sample size and came up with the same results, then? Was there also 1500 done in multi opens to compare the results.... or was it just assumed that the results would be worse.......... thought so. I opened 50 at once and i had many 1-5au prizes.
|
|
Asturias
Destrier
Posts: 65
Karma: 78
Pilot name: ᴀsτυяιαs ẕωєι ⚙
Platform: iOS
|
Post by Asturias on Dec 24, 2016 22:13:27 GMT -5
Are you just going to ignore the guy who ran a 1500 sample size and came up with the same results, then? Was there also 1500 done in multi opens to compare the results.... or was it just assumed that the results would be worse.......... thought so. Actually, I did 230 multi-opens. Loads of 1 Au, 2 Au, 3 Au, 7, 8... 20K Ag... ANYONE who has done a multi-open can just click on the Prize Log history, scroll to the bottom and see loads of junk prizes. But I see you're in the habit of making assumptions of what people do or do not do to suit your hypothesis. So I'm not surprised that you make assumptions about a phenomenon (oh, it must be confirmation bias) and then choose to disregard any evidence that opposes it. For those who are actually interested in whether the phenomenon is genuine or merely confirmation bias at work, I will be spending money and time in the name of good data soon. I have a screenshot of the worst prizes of my old prize log, will do 230 individual opens using the method stated in this thread and post 4 screenshots of the worst prizes. See you in a few hours.
|
|
|
Post by ΜΣƬΔƬΓΘ∏ on Dec 24, 2016 22:21:42 GMT -5
Actually all of this conversation and bias talk sounds much like the elites in EVE would do to try and discourage others from trying what they were already doing
I have opened nearing 300 boxes and i am convinced that the last 50 one at a time after logging out is better than the previous 250. but i will tey to keep a proper log
it likely wont matter to certain players since it is so easy to refute that im lying or manipulating the data
i just have my phone and im not sure how to record my present 50 list but that would be a way to prove that i am not manipulating the data
|
|
|
Post by boomsplat on Dec 24, 2016 23:24:05 GMT -5
I could care less if it is disbelief or belief bias or whatever else you want to call it....since doing the open and close, I have noticed an improvement in the quality of the prizes based on qualitative observations - Why do you need to do a statistically valid test for every notion that comes up in an online game? The only cost to me to do the open close method in which I believe the prizes are better is some time vs a mass opening....it is my time at stake and no cost to any other party.
Why do these people want to spoil things for others when it doesn't impact them. That's the problem with these forums sometimes....there is always some really smart people who want to [poo poo] on others....they should turn their attention to hunger relief or solving other real problems.
Merry Christmas and Cheers.
|
|
|
Post by EatStinkyTofu on Dec 24, 2016 23:55:31 GMT -5
From a coding point of view... that doesnt make sense at all... theyd have to of coded in two seperate randomised algorithms in order for that to ring true... one for the first roll on login with a different set of values on the payouts and then a second randomised table values to get the other spins... Just doesnt make sense. Looks more like confirmation bias than any lehit trick. I think it's plausible even if it took more work. To encourage more purchases, it sort of makes sense that it would help if the first spin yielded a decent prize?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
Karma:
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 25, 2016 0:10:58 GMT -5
From a coding point of view... that doesnt make sense at all... theyd have to of coded in two seperate randomised algorithms in order for that to ring true... one for the first roll on login with a different set of values on the payouts and then a second randomised table values to get the other spins... Just doesnt make sense. Looks more like confirmation bias than any lehit trick. I think it's plausible even if it took more work. To encourage more purchases, it sort of makes sense that it would help if the first spin yielded a decent prize? Ya, and it goes hand in hand with the APPEARANCE of a RNG generated prize displayed on a spinner that acts like it barely missed a high value item.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
Karma:
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 25, 2016 0:33:51 GMT -5
1500 is a very large sample size,and subject to the data being skewed by outlyers
|
|
|
Post by petevb on Dec 25, 2016 2:19:45 GMT -5
Let me start of by saying that confirmation bias is a legitimate term It is. Unfortunately it seems you're the guy with that particular affliction it in this case. As I said a number of people have done statistical comparisons. For example one guy in my clan recorded 40 spins with and without. The results showed a clear advantage for closing the app. Not only significantly higher winnings, but zero instances of 1,3 or 5 gold in 40 spins. Compare that to doing 10 spins at a time, where roughly half of the spins resulted in payouts equivilant to 5 gold or less. Statistically speaking that's case closed: the chances of getting "lucky" 40 times in a row with 50/50 odds are in the range of .0000000001%. I don't think we've heard a single case of a 1 gold payout after restarting the app, have we? Anyone? There is another psychological effect going on here: our minds are very good at identifying this type of pattern. Occasionally too good, granted, but subconsciously we will identify a statistical advantage in roughly half the time it takes us to be able to even verbalized it (read "blink", Malcom Gladwell for more). We "know" something like this before we know it. So don't be to quick to dismiss a gut "feeling". You seem very intent on "proving" that you're correct in this case. But ask yourself how far your own confirmation bias goes. Are you willing to listen to evidence, or will you dismiss it? Are you willing to do your own test and check the result? It should take you just 20 spins to confirm or deny what I outlined above.
|
|
|
Post by Fιεχροιητ™ on Dec 25, 2016 7:11:36 GMT -5
Let me start of by saying that confirmation bias is a legitimate term It is. Unfortunately it seems you're the guy with that particular affliction it in this case. As I said a number of people have done statistical comparisons. For example one guy in my clan recorded 40 spins with and without. The results showed a clear advantage for closing the app. Not only significantly higher winnings, but zero instances of 1,3 or 5 gold in 40 spins. Compare that to doing 10 spins at a time, where roughly half of the spins resulted in payouts equivilant to 5 gold or less. Statistically speaking that's case closed: the chances of getting "lucky" 40 times in a row with 50/50 odds are in the range of .0000000001%. I don't think we've heard a single case of a 1 gold payout after restarting the app, have we? Anyone? There is another psychological effect going on here: our minds are very good at identifying this type of pattern. Occasionally too good, granted, but subconsciously we will identify a statistical advantage in roughly half the time it takes us to be able to even verbalized it (read "blink", Malcom Gladwell for more). We "know" something like this before we know it. So don't be to quick to dismiss a gut "feeling". You seem very intent on "proving" that you're correct in this case. But ask yourself how far your own confirmation bias goes. Are you willing to listen to evidence, or will you dismiss it? Are you willing to do your own test and check the result? It should take you just 20 spins to confirm or deny what I outlined above. Well said mate.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
Karma:
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 25, 2016 7:51:15 GMT -5
Ouch... merry xmas all.
My results from opening 7 multi chests of 10 each resulted in a 1 Au chest at the end every time. After reading this thread I've closed after each individual chest, 100 chests so far, and not got less than 15 Au. So, it's working for me.
|
|
|
Post by ł⸰§ĦȺĐ◎ŴƧŦḀɌ on Dec 25, 2016 11:13:54 GMT -5
|
|
[AurN] perfectlyGoodInk
Aurora Clan Moderator
Posts: 729
Karma: 556
Platform: Android
Clan: leader of Aurora Nova [AurN]
League: Gold
Server Region: North America
Favorite robot: Bishop from Aliens, although WALL-E is a close second
|
Post by [AurN] perfectlyGoodInk on Dec 25, 2016 15:33:29 GMT -5
This is a russian coding house... they do everything on the very very cheap. They dont engage in psychological research into the minds of gambler's in video games. I've seen lots of software done on the cheap, which just does the minimum without putting in the little details. This game is definitely not in that category. Smoke trails, different sounds for every weapon that vary with distance, Latin words in the signs of Dead City, the tiny vehicles on the streets and parking lots, the subtle but eye-catching animation around the "buy WSP with your precious gold!" box... they went well above and beyond the minimum here, and it's a VERY addictive game. They don't need to do any original research. Plenty of work has already been done and put to use in countless other places. Also, I believe Pixonic was bought for $30 million recently. This ain't no basement operation.
|
|
loneshiva
Destrier
Posts: 42
Karma: 18
Pilot name: [SAF] Ioneshiva
Platform: Android
Clan: SAF
League: Silver
Favorite robot: Boa (gonna love to give it to them in the FACE)
|
Post by loneshiva on Dec 26, 2016 1:54:23 GMT -5
Ive also found a new trick to add to it... Youll get gold weaps every time if you are facing exactly towards moscow when you spin. You also have to scream out... "for mmother russia!" When you press it with your thumb on your left hand. This is 100% accurate in the 6 tests i have done. Surely you kmow im joking by now just as how this "glitch" youre suggesting exists is just annecdotal confirmation bias. i could show you proof but you might then suggest that i didn't do enough testing. My latest recent 50 loot log shows that i'll didn't get any thing lower than 15 au(i try recording my own loot before knowing this. And i know 1au-9au reward exist and i now didn't even get it once in 50 try ?) Silver reward 50k at the minimum, same as above i know reward such as 5k , 12k , 20k exist. Last but not least. Weapon reward wise. Molot and punisher has disappear too. I hope this will at least encourage you to try. All the best. Here the video of my recent 50 loot. its just 2.2mb and 30+ sec long.
|
|
loneshiva
Destrier
Posts: 42
Karma: 18
Pilot name: [SAF] Ioneshiva
Platform: Android
Clan: SAF
League: Silver
Favorite robot: Boa (gonna love to give it to them in the FACE)
|
Post by loneshiva on Dec 26, 2016 1:56:36 GMT -5
Does not work on android. 15 chest no bots or weapons only gold (in between two bots) and tons of silver Did you try the method mention by j3st3r or by me at the first post? And you mention gold and ton of silver? How much gold? 15 au at least? Silver? 50k silver at least?
|
|
loneshiva
Destrier
Posts: 42
Karma: 18
Pilot name: [SAF] Ioneshiva
Platform: Android
Clan: SAF
League: Silver
Favorite robot: Boa (gonna love to give it to them in the FACE)
|
Post by loneshiva on Dec 26, 2016 2:04:37 GMT -5
After checking the past post in here. I'm real glad that it helped most of the people who tried it. Now if it work, do spread the method around.
Having better loot is always good than these crappy 1-9 au roll or 5-12k silver!
Good luck and hope everyone win big. The Au from all the roll help me farm roughly 2.5k au in 4 day to get my 5th slot. Cheers.
|
|
LeonF
Destrier
Posts: 118
Karma: 48
|
Post by LeonF on Dec 26, 2016 4:49:09 GMT -5
I've noticed a definite improvement in my winning with an even simpler action than the eternal-restart procedure...
Believe the Prize Log!
According to that list my last 6 wins were: Patton Thunder Vityaz 100Au Boa Golem
Absolutely nothing like the truth!!!
Yes I did win these but certainly not last 6.It's simply cherry picking the most valuable recent prizes and placing them on top making it appear better than it is. Scroll down and it reveals just as many Noricums, 5k Ag, 1Au and cheap wins.
Its all welcome freebies but once again it's Trickery.
And before any comments I have also had runs of chests where the lowest rewards were 15Au/100kAg/Weapon/Bot. If the wins are random then it'll happen and one streak counts for nothing.
|
|
|
Post by CΛΜΡΞΓ™ on Dec 26, 2016 5:05:50 GMT -5
I've noticed a definite improvement in my winning with an even simpler action than the eternal-restart procedure... Believe the Prize Log! According to that list my last 6 wins were: Patton Thunder Vityaz 100Au Boa Golem Absolutely nothing like the truth!!! Yes I did win these but certainly not last 6.It's simply cherry picking the most valuable recent prizes and placing them on top making it appear better than it is. Scroll down and it reveals just as many Noricums, 5k Ag, 1Au and cheap wins. Its all welcome freebies but once again it's Trickery. And before any comments I have also had runs of chests where the lowest rewards were 15Au/100kAg/Weapon/Bot. If the wins are random then it'll happen and one streak counts for nothing. this is actually handy, as i dont really care for anything other than the big rewards from the chest, and makes finding any good items that you recieve easier.
|
|
LeonF
Destrier
Posts: 118
Karma: 48
|
Post by LeonF on Dec 26, 2016 5:18:27 GMT -5
The Prize Log would be very useful if it had options:
1. Most recent 2. Sort by item type 3. Sort by resource cost 4. Sort by resale value
As it stands it makes the rewards appear better than they actually are if you don't keep track of reality
|
|
JstKnwImThad
Destrier
My strawberry yoghurt fills the void in my soul
Posts: 57
Karma: 32
Pilot name: ClMeThad
Platform: iOS
Clan: bMf3
League: Gold
Server Region: Asia
Favorite robot: Galahad
|
Post by JstKnwImThad on Dec 26, 2016 5:44:42 GMT -5
Though time consuming to open multiple chests at a time with the glitch it's pretty neat.
|
|
|
Post by Loop_Stratos on Dec 26, 2016 6:26:01 GMT -5
Though time consuming to open multiple chests at a time with the glitch it's pretty neat. I usually get enough for a chest, open immediately, do something else until i feel like doing another battle, rinse and repeat. So I unknowningly apply this before this trick is known.
|
|
|
Post by Thunderkiss on Dec 26, 2016 9:14:45 GMT -5
Or, open one chest after a battle. Results appear to match this method. No 1 Au crappie pulls. Lots of 15,20 Au pulls and bots.omfg bots......
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
Karma:
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 26, 2016 10:21:58 GMT -5
Are you just going to ignore the guy who ran a 1500 sample size and came up with the same results, then? Was there also 1500 done in multi opens to compare the results.... or was it just assumed that the results would be worse.......... thought so. Come on now. J3st3r, you keep insisting that people's perception of better results are due to confirmation bias. This is basically the same as saying they're dumb. I havn't kept records, but I can assure you that for the first.. 300 chests opened (?) via multichest, the rewards are significantly worse than doing open-appClose-open-appClose-etc. As others have mentioned, doing the latter result in nothing worse than 50k silver or 15 au. Anecdotal, sure, but I know enough statistics to recognize when I am being confirmation-biased.
As for the "seperate loot table" and "lots of extra work developing that functionality" (paraphrasing), that is complete nonsense. No half-decent coder would need to add more than a couple of lines (well, 4) to implement that feature.
|
|