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Post by wildboar on Nov 17, 2017 4:57:45 GMT -5
Has anyone totaled up how much Au you need to get the whole thing?
I have only every gone as far as spin #3 that was around 23 Au IIRC ... is it worth pushing to get the top prize even with the possible 2500 Au in the chain?
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Post by aceboy44 on Nov 17, 2017 5:15:20 GMT -5
No, you will end up spending more than the gold you receive in the raffle.
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Post by AzureAura on Nov 17, 2017 6:28:41 GMT -5
A lot more will be spent than earned
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Post by NerFB on Nov 17, 2017 6:46:00 GMT -5
Has anyone totaled up how much Au you need to get the whole thing? I have only every gone as far as spin #3 that was around 23 Au IIRC ... is it worth pushing to get the top prize even with the possible 2500 Au in the chain? There's a thread somewhere listing the amount of AU is costs each time, but I can't find it. I know the 8th Spin costs 655AU, because i stopped on the 7th, when i got 2.5K AU, but that seems to be the exception to the rule.... |
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Post by ♧SGT FURY 24/7♧ on Nov 17, 2017 6:54:49 GMT -5
There's a YouTube video on it, too. I forget who posted it, maybe Adrian Chong? Anyway, the cost is astounding, and "prizes" are clearly given starting with lowest value and moving up. It is not random. It is rigged. You are advised to stay clear of it. Take the 12 hr premium or whatever you get for the free spin and walk away. You have been warned.
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Post by _psychø on Nov 17, 2017 7:03:59 GMT -5
You'll spend over 10k of course.
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ma'ElKoth
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Post by ma'ElKoth on Nov 17, 2017 7:04:50 GMT -5
There's a YouTube video on it You probably refer to this one. |
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Post by wildboar on Nov 17, 2017 7:48:50 GMT -5
There's a YouTube video on it You probably refer to this one. Yeah that's it , found it & just watched it it goes like this : Kumiho /terminal velocity AU - Prize 0 - 12hr VIP 6 - 12Hr VIP ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 - 7 Components 47 - 7 Components 94 - 10 Components 185 - 50 Au 365 - 15 Components 655 - 3350 Components ---------------------------------------- Clearly anything below this line is a complete and utter waste - although i feel anything below the first line is a waste! 1090 - 75 Au 1790 - 30 Components 2620 - 500 Au3590 - 2500 Au He started with 16589 Au - by the time he got the 3350 components it was at 15270 ... finished on 9255 So 1319 Au for 3389 Kumiho components in this case |
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ma'ElKoth
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Post by ma'ElKoth on Nov 17, 2017 8:38:35 GMT -5
Yes, in this case. I believe he had been very lucky though and more commonly you would receive at least that 75 Au and 30 Comps before you get those 3350 Comps. Which would already increase the price by ~2800 Au. And after that it gets much worse very quick  |
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Post by frunobulax on Nov 17, 2017 9:36:30 GMT -5
The cost does depend on the item, Haechi has higher gold costs than Kumiho. Assuming that you get the 3350 components last (which is very likely), you'll spend roughly 7k on the Kumiho but I remember seeing something like 12k total gold loss (gold spent minus gold earned) for the Haechi or Inquisitor. So you can buy a Haechi for 36k gold this way, or a bit less if you're lucky and get the 3350 components earlier (unlikely).
BTW, we know that the spins are rigged. It is likely that Pixo gives better odds for the first "game" you play, because if you get the [whatever] 3350 components with some spins to go you're more likely to spin additional games, where the 3350 will fall inevitably on the last spin.
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Post by frunobulax on Nov 17, 2017 9:44:58 GMT -5
Yes, in this case. I believe he had been very lucky though and more commonly you would receive at least that 75 Au and 30 Comps before you get those 3350 Comps. Which would already increase the price by ~2800 Au. And after that it gets much worse very quick No, he didn't get lucky. That was the teaser round that gave the good prize, and that is followed by a lot of "bust" rounds. First rule in rigged games: Make the customer wins early, otherwise he'll walk away from the game after one attempt. I'm pretty sure that your chances of getting 3350 components before the very last spin are very slim for the second, third and fourth "game" you play. If you doubt me, then remember the old event wheel that could be reset by reopening the app. The first spin always gave a good prize, after that the chance of getting something useful plummeted to "total crap returns in 95% of the draws". This logic is now implemented server side. |
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Post by ma'ElKoth on Nov 17, 2017 9:49:46 GMT -5
If you doubt me, then remember the old event wheel that could be reset by reopening the app. The first spin always gave a good prize, after that the chance of getting something useful plummeted to "total crap returns in 95% of the draws". This logic is now implemented server side. Must have been before I started playing Even then, being that the case back then does not quite "proof" it still being the case or being a fact in this specific case. On the other hand, neither have I seen anything on the contrary that suggests anything different. |
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Post by blackhand7 on Nov 17, 2017 9:52:17 GMT -5
Has anyone totaled up how much Au you need to get the whole thing? I have only every gone as far as spin #3 that was around 23 Au IIRC ... is it worth pushing to get the top prize even with the possible 2500 Au in the chain? There's a thread somewhere listing the amount of AU is costs each time, but I can't find it. I know the 8th Spin costs 655AU, because i stopped on the 7th, when i got 2.5K AU, but that seems to be the exception to the rule.... I think this is the link you are looking for: The Krebonomics of the halloween wheel spin |
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Post by frunobulax on Nov 17, 2017 10:22:42 GMT -5
If you doubt me, then remember the old event wheel that could be reset by reopening the app. The first spin always gave a good prize, after that the chance of getting something useful plummeted to "total crap returns in 95% of the draws". This logic is now implemented server side. Must have been before I started playing Even then, being that the case back then does not quite "proof" it still being the case or being a fact in this specific case. On the other hand, neither have I seen anything on the contrary that suggests anything different. Oh yes, I have no doubt that Pixo uses rigged schemes. As I fell to them in 3.1 and bought keys (stupid me, but that $340 bot outrage wasn't out by then), I opened quite some chests and the pattern matched perfectly the shady scheme patterns described on gamasutra. Basically, they include just enough "good" prices to keep you spinning/buying. After some success(es) early on there comes a long draught that is interrupted by the very rare good prize, but keeps you thinking it's worth buying even more. I bought two 13k key packages, do you think it is just chance that the first round of prizes was much better than the second one? The same happend in all events with their random chests, back to the christmas event a year ago. Whenever I spun my first silver chest there was a pretty good reward there. All further chests contained only crap. Never got to gold chests at the time because I never wasted real money on those old events, but I'm sure they were the same. All this matches perfectly with the patterns that virtually all other players describe. And of course that crooked superchest bar that appears 40% full with 1000 keys, 60% full with 2000 keys, but of course you need 7500 to get to the superchest. |
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Post by Scuzzbopper on Nov 17, 2017 10:44:55 GMT -5
Omit the 2 lowest reward parts wins (like the 7 or the 10) and the two 50K Ag. Spin up to 4 times to get the premium. If you don't get the 2nd premium by the 4th spin move on. After that it isn't worth it. I've followed this pattern since Halloween and have had only 2 times when I didn't get the second premium within 4 spins. For me it's worth it as I am advancing gear toward 10 and the Ag bonus for premium pays off.
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Post by cmdrperalta on Nov 17, 2017 10:59:45 GMT -5
Pix should post the odds somewhere. I just do the free spin everyday now. I won't waste Au on it.
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Post by blackhand7 on Nov 17, 2017 11:31:54 GMT -5
Pix should post the odds somewhere. I just do the free spin everyday now. I won't waste Au on it. If you need silver, it is worth spinning to get premium, but no further. The most I have ever had to spin was three times (on IOS). |
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Post by grendelsbot on Nov 17, 2017 14:31:05 GMT -5
I will gladly spend 8 gold or whatever the second spin is for a chance at some components if the item is something I want. And if I win, which usually happens on the first or second spin, I get like 10 components. That's less than 1:1 ratio so I see that as a deal. Sometimes I spend like 21 gold or whatever it is for third one as I don't need really more gold, and if I get more components great. I may get another 10 components. Worst case I get Premium again, which big deal, I've paid 21 gold for more Premium, which I don't need really as I have a hoard of silver. But I've watched Adrian's videos and wondered if it's worth it. He has gotten the 3350 components on the 8th spin. Does that Kumiho chart apply to other items? I will gladly pay 1000 gold for 3350 components for items I want (I don't want Kumiho though)  ?? |
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Post by ♧SGT FURY 24/7♧ on Nov 17, 2017 15:17:31 GMT -5
Ok, in the interest of fairness, I just got 50 au off a free spin (handy as I'm saving for 5th). I still recommend NOT spending ANY gold on the lucky spin. Just wanted to make a possible correction in the lowest payout first theory I spoke of earlier.
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Post by wildboar on Nov 17, 2017 16:59:34 GMT -5
Ok, in the interest of fairness, I just got 50 au off a free spin (handy as I'm saving for 5th). I still recommend NOT spending ANY gold on the lucky spin. Just wanted to make a possible correction in the lowest payout first theory I spoke of earlier. Says the Pix employee  |
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Post by amidf on Nov 17, 2017 18:00:12 GMT -5
Guys, random does not equal all outcomes equally likely. I posted that before. I posted it yesterday. Please! Misspell Zeus if you have to, but stop conflating random with equal odds!
As far as I can tell, the Royale games are random. Usually I get Premium on the first spin, but sometimes it is low components or silver, depending on what I've excluded. I have also hit 50 Au on the first spin.
The odds are heavily weighted toward the lower value items! That does not make it non-random. The fact that sometimes you get better stuff, or sometimes you get the grand prize 1-2 spins away from the last spin is a side effect of the weighted odds. It may benefit Pixonic, but the alternate explanations that Pix has fixed the order of prizes received for everyone except a small few so that they will spread false hope is far too complicated! They can achieve the same effect with weighted odds. So why wouldn't they? Do you think they have a majority stake in some tinfoil company?
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Post by cmdrperalta on Nov 17, 2017 18:02:21 GMT -5
They should post the odds, at least for top prize.
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Post by Uhnonimis on Nov 17, 2017 18:15:10 GMT -5
I have been spinning on the wheel since it has been showing up in the Halloween event. I do not spin when the cost is above 50 Au, and knock out the two lowest component rewards and either the two premium awards or the two lowest gold rewards, depending on whether or not i anticipate playing a lot in the ensuing 12-24 hours. That almost always equates to 3 spins, or rarely 4.
I get almost all cheap nothing prizes, but don't lose a lot of Au, so that is fine. Once, about midway through the event, I got 10,000 tempest components.
And OF COURSE the games are rigged, and they will stay that way. Why is this even a topic of discussion?
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Post by hyderier on Nov 17, 2017 18:57:13 GMT -5
Guys, random does not equal all outcomes equally likely. I posted that before. I posted it yesterday. Please! Misspell Zeus if you have to, but stop conflating random with equal odds! As far as I can tell, the Royale games are random. Usually I get Premium on the first spin, but sometimes it is low components or silver, depending on what I've excluded. I have also hit 50 Au on the first spin. The odds are heavily weighted toward the lower value items! That does not make it non-random. The fact that sometimes you get better stuff, or sometimes you get the grand prize 1-2 spins away from the last spin is a side effect of the weighted odds. It may benefit Pixonic, but the alternate explanations that Pix has fixed the order of prizes received for everyone except a small few so that they wll spread false hope is far too complicated! They can achieve the same effect with weighted odds. So why wouldn't they? Do you think they have a majority stake in some tinfoil company? "Random" is a funny thing. Here is a random number for you: 18 It was rolled with 20 sided dice. About as random as it gets in real life. Feel free tobuse it for any random number needs you may have. On a more serious note: Obviously Royale seems somewhat random, everybody can notice that. But we don't know how. We/I don't for example know if it is possible to get best price first, or if it is possible to get the better Au prices before all Ag prices are given. So it may be just partially random, with some non-random hidden rules. Or maybe changing odds (I mean more than just by exclusion of won items). It seems it probably is not just straight different but fixed odds, or we would indeed see more max gold and max component offers coming during vety first spins. So it is partially random. And for a spinner, that's essentially same as non-random from player PoV. And of course a roulette wheel like thing with different identically sized wheel slots but different odds for them is straight out deception. They had to pull the card flipping thing because changing the card after you pick it was a bit too much for Google snd Apple (note that they didn't fix it, they removed it), but the "invisibly weighted roulette' is just as bad in my eyes. |
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Post by amidf on Nov 17, 2017 20:27:00 GMT -5
hyderier, repeat after me: "Random does not mean equal odds." A weighted die is still random. Please stop misusing the term. The reason you don't see the top item come out after the first spin is because it has very low odds of getting picked up in any spin where there are high odds choices still left. Your roulette wheel with big and small slots is a good example. It's random. The odds of each result are not equal. But it's still random. Not publishing the odds (e.g. hiding the wheel from view) is deceptive. But it's still random. Random does not mean equal odds. Really.
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Post by ⓣⓡⓘⓒⓚⓨ48 on Nov 18, 2017 1:39:44 GMT -5
 Second spin. It can can and does happen. Ive only been spinning 2 for the premium, and mostly get it. Today, I got a scourge for my second. *shrugs* |
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Post by ma'ElKoth on Nov 18, 2017 3:21:43 GMT -5
So chances definitely exist, but are faint.
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Post by moolamu on Nov 18, 2017 4:00:32 GMT -5
So chances definitely exist, but are faint. The same reason why people buy the lottery. Chances are slim, buuuuuut, it might be you! |
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Post by hyderier on Nov 18, 2017 6:24:47 GMT -5
Second spin. It can can and does happen. Ive only been spinning 2 for the premium, and mostly get it. Today, I got a scourge for my second. *shrugs* So it seems there are non-zero odds of good items very early. Well, that's good I suppose. |
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Post by hyderier on Nov 18, 2017 6:38:38 GMT -5
hyderier, repeat after me: "Random does not mean equal odds." A weighted die is still random. Please stop misusing the term. The reason you don't see the top item come out after the first spin is because it has very low odds of getting picked up in any spin where there are high odds choices still left. Your roulette wheel with big and small slots is a good example. It's random. The odds of each result are not equal. But it's still random. Not publishing the odds (e.g. hiding the wheel from view) is deceptive. But it's still random. Random does not mean equal odds. Really. But hidden non-random rules, if there are any, make it non random. Though after the Scourge post above, I might believe there actually aren't any. Example of non-random constraint: if there is blue card with number 1, and green card with number 2, but a red card was removed, then it is not random wether you get red card or not. Anyway, not disagreeing with you about randomness. It's just beeide the point. A gambler making money with weighted dice does not get rich by random chance, even if what dices do is random. |
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