The Krebonomics of the halloween wheel spin
Oct 26, 2017 12:21:17 GMT -5
EatStinkyTofu, bot9000, and 20 more like this
Post by krebby on Oct 26, 2017 12:21:17 GMT -5
Hi friends:
I wanted to share with you my analysis of the halloween event. Hopefully, this will help you keep your hard earned Au.
TL;DR—No more than 3 spins max.
Note, believe both games are functionally identical. I'm basing this analysis on the "board game" version, but I believe the prizes/progression costs are the same for both the "card" and "board."
First, let's examine the game.
I would recommend excluding the four lowest components. Although it seems most people are opting to exclude the two 50k Ag purchases and the two 7 component purchases.
III. The price to purchase the whole menu
The cost per spin if the wheel is as follows:
In other words, it will cost you 7,334 gold to purchase: (1) 3,380 components, (2) 325,000 Ag; and (3) 24 hrs of premium. Not exactly a bargain.
IV. When to stop spinning the wheel
Okay, so we know the cost to purchase the entire menu is an absolute rip-off, so when should we stop? Here are my thoughts:
I believe for *most* people the logical cut-off point will be the third spin. At that point, you've spent 70 Au to buy, e.g., 175,000 Ag. Not the most exciting purchase in the world, but also not one that will ruin your day.
What about the fourth spin? At that point you are spending 164 Au for the 4 least desirable items on the menu. For example, suppose you are buying the 4 silver items, or a total of 325,000 Ag, for 164 Au. That gives you a slightly worse deal than you would get if you exchanged 250 Au for 500,000 Ag in the in-game store. Ask yourself, have you *ever* been tempted to exchanged 250 Au for 500,000 Ag in the in-game store? If the answer is "No," then you know the fourth spin is a bad deal for you.
Worse still, each subsequent spin gives you significantly worse prices.
Thus, Krebby recommends you limit yourself to 3 spins and no more! Ideally, you *only* take the free spin.
The best choice is to simply take the free spin and gain something (probably tiny) for nothing.
But if you are going to purchase something from the menu, three spins provides a reasonable price for any of the items you buy, with a chance (unknown, but probably tiny) of getting more value from your purchase.
Finally, you should stop spinning immediately if you obtain a more desirable item on your first or second spin. Removing a desirable item from the menu just makes subsequent spins worse.
I wanted to share with you my analysis of the halloween event. Hopefully, this will help you keep your hard earned Au.
TL;DR—No more than 3 spins max.
Note, believe both games are functionally identical. I'm basing this analysis on the "board game" version, but I believe the prizes/progression costs are the same for both the "card" and "board."
First, let's examine the game.
- You begin with a pool of 16 potential purchases. I encourage you to think of them as "purchases" and not "prizes" because (with the exception of the first spin) you are laying down your currency in exchange for something. A prize is something you win; make not mistake that you are buying something.
Here is a list of the 16 items from which you will make purchasesAu Ag Components 1 2500 150,000 3,350 2 500 75,000 30 3 75 50,000 15 4 50 50,000 10 5 - 12hr premium 7 6 - 12hr premium 7
- Next, you select 4 items to remove from the purchase menu
I would recommend excluding the four lowest components. Although it seems most people are opting to exclude the two 50k Ag purchases and the two 7 component purchases.
III. The price to purchase the whole menu
The cost per spin if the wheel is as follows:
| Spin # | Au "list" cost of spin | Actual cost (cost of all previous spins, assuming you get Au last) |
| 1 | Free | Free |
| 2 | 6 | 6 |
| 3 | 17 | 23 |
| 4 | 47 | 70 |
| 5 | 94 | 164 |
| 6 | 185 | 349 |
| 7 | 365 | 714 |
| 8 | 655 | 1,369 |
| 9 | 1,090 | 2,409 |
| 10 | 1,790 | 4,124 |
| 11 | 2,620 | 6,244 |
| 12 | 3,590 | 7,334 |
In other words, it will cost you 7,334 gold to purchase: (1) 3,380 components, (2) 325,000 Ag; and (3) 24 hrs of premium. Not exactly a bargain.
IV. When to stop spinning the wheel
Okay, so we know the cost to purchase the entire menu is an absolute rip-off, so when should we stop? Here are my thoughts:
- Always assume you are purchasing the worst items remaining. We have no idea what the odds are of obtaining a high prize, so you should presume your next purchase will be the least desirable item remaining on the menu.
- You should always take the first free spin. Even if you get the least desirable item, you're getting it at the right price but only if you stop spinning right there.
- The first spin is free *only* if you stop spinning right there. I cannot emphasize enough that your "free" spin is no longer free once you pay for subsequent spins. Instead, you're paying a certain amount of X number of items from the menu—including the item you obtained on your first spin.
- Your second spin will cost you 6 Au. Ask yourself, "Am I willing to spend 6 Au in exchange for the two least desirable prizes on the menu?"
- Your third spin will cost you 23 Au. Again, ask yourself "Am I willing to spend 23 Au in exchange for the three least desirable prizes on the menu?"
- etc.
I believe for *most* people the logical cut-off point will be the third spin. At that point, you've spent 70 Au to buy, e.g., 175,000 Ag. Not the most exciting purchase in the world, but also not one that will ruin your day.
What about the fourth spin? At that point you are spending 164 Au for the 4 least desirable items on the menu. For example, suppose you are buying the 4 silver items, or a total of 325,000 Ag, for 164 Au. That gives you a slightly worse deal than you would get if you exchanged 250 Au for 500,000 Ag in the in-game store. Ask yourself, have you *ever* been tempted to exchanged 250 Au for 500,000 Ag in the in-game store? If the answer is "No," then you know the fourth spin is a bad deal for you.
Worse still, each subsequent spin gives you significantly worse prices.
Thus, Krebby recommends you limit yourself to 3 spins and no more! Ideally, you *only* take the free spin.
The best choice is to simply take the free spin and gain something (probably tiny) for nothing.
But if you are going to purchase something from the menu, three spins provides a reasonable price for any of the items you buy, with a chance (unknown, but probably tiny) of getting more value from your purchase.
Finally, you should stop spinning immediately if you obtain a more desirable item on your first or second spin. Removing a desirable item from the menu just makes subsequent spins worse.
