The BM change (with components) is good evolution

Sept 28, 2017 19:31:39 GMT -5 Landy said:

Yes, I understand that it will take you the full time of 437 days on average to get even 1 bot. But by that time, you won't just have 1 bot, you will have 7.  That would ease the pain of the grind a bit. Of course, those bots may be obsolete by then so...

Don't try to bring sense or positivity in this thread, half of people came to say how Pix business model sucks, completely ignoring the actual premise of this thread.

The first BM was a horror. Some guys would get a Dash with a Bronze chests, some others would never win anything, creating massive unfairness between players in the process. The second version, at least, will spread things more evenly between players and that is a major improvement for me. Of course in ANY system some people will go faster because they pay, if you expected Pix to release Dash bots with a fairly low price so everybody would get them fast, you were due for a disappointment. But that's ANOTHER story.

Besides, when people complain about the grind. You know what, I do only this since I started this game since I don't put money in this game. I grind for silver, I grind for gold, I will grind for components. It really doesn't change that much for me. I don't need a Dash RIGHT NOW to enjoy the game, I had to wait 10 months to get a Lance, I can wait a while also to get a Dash or an Inquisitor. At least now I now I know that I will progress toward that goal day after day, and that there is some sort of transparency and fairness between players (not full fairness BTW, but still better than the 1st BM). The first version of the BM just didn't give any of that.

All that said, it's true that I hope Pix will revamp WSP and still find a way to allow players to buy now stuff with WSP and/or Gold. WSP are now useless and Gold could become useless too if nothing is done. So then again, I am not saying this BM stuff is the nirvana, far from it, I am only saying that at least the new version is an improvement over the first one. Sorry if people don't want to see any positive word around here, but that is at least something positive I can see in the new version.

Sept 29, 2017 4:09:32 GMT -5 carnage said:

Sept 28, 2017 19:31:39 GMT -5 Landy said:

Yes, I understand that it will take you the full time of 437 days on average to get even 1 bot. But by that time, you won't just have 1 bot, you will have 7.  That would ease the pain of the grind a bit. Of course, those bots may be obsolete by then so...

Don't try to bring sense or positivity in this thread, half of people came to say how Pix business model sucks, completely ignoring the actual premise of this thread.

The first BM was a horror. Some guys would get a Dash with a Bronze chests, some others would never win anything, creating massive unfairness between players in the process. The second version, at least, will spread things more evenly between players and that is a major improvement for me. Of course in ANY system some people will go faster because they pay, if you expected Pix to release Dash bots with a fairly low price so everybody would get them fast, you were due for a disappointment. But that's ANOTHER story.

Besides, when people complain about the grind. You know what, I do only this since I started this game since I don't put money in this game. I grind for silver, I grind for gold, I will grind for components. It really doesn't change that much for me. I don't need a Dash RIGHT NOW to enjoy the game, I had to wait 10 months to get a Lance, I can wait a while also to get a Dash or an Inquisitor. At least now I now I know that I will progress toward that goal day after day, and that there is some sort of transparency and fairness between players (not full fairness BTW, but still better than the 1st BM). The first version of the BM just didn't give any of that.

All that said, it's true that I hope Pix will revamp WSP and still find a way to allow players to buy now stuff with WSP and/or Gold. WSP are now useless and Gold could become useless too if nothing is done. So then again, I am not saying this BM stuff is the nirvana, far from it, I am only saying that at least the new version is an improvement over the first one. Sorry if people don't want to see any positive word around here, but that is at least something positive I can see in the new version.

I'm not sure if you get the consequences of this change.

Old BM model:

A casual player would have about a 10% chance of getting a dash bot after a month.

After 10 months he would on average have one dash bot.

After 50 months he would on average have five dash bots.

New BM model:

A casual player would have 0% chance of getting a dash bot after a month.
After 10 months he would on average have zero dash bots.
After 50 months he would on average have five dash bots.

So if your point is that it is more fair that no F2P players get dash bots, then yes, it's a change for the better.

But don't fool yourself into thinking that you can realistically get meta bots this way.

(Not trying to sound condescending btw, just disappointed in the way this was done, so sorry if it seems like I'm taking my frustrations out on you )

Sept 29, 2017 5:39:37 GMT -5 carnage said:

Sept 29, 2017 5:20:52 GMT -5 @nixpilot said:

Numbers aren't exact btw, just an estimate of how long it will take to get components for a casual player.

No problem and that's exactly what I was gonna answer you. You give numbers without any factual back-up. We have no idea in reality and I HIGHLY doubt 10% of players were getting a Dash after a month.

More like 1% (if we talk free players), but then again, it's pure speculation.

And about getting those robots F2P, time will show. I did it with silver or gold, I see no reason to believe that it will not be possible with components. Yes it's long, but like I said, it's not like having a Dash is mandatory to enjoy the game. That could become a problem if we see too many of them and if they are OP, but that's a totally different topic obviously.

True and without access to the codebase we have no way of knowing how probable it is or was to get a dash bot as f2p.

About the 1% / 10%: I did get one dash bot, for free, from a silver chest with keys won from matches - but then again (1) I play a lot so I'm not exactly "casual" and (2) I also purchased some keys and theoretically Pix could skew the chances for p2w players (I highly doubt it as it wouldn't make sense for them, but some other players think so and it is possible).

But still, assuming (and that's what we're all doing, assuming and speculating) that pix has ensured that the value of the dash bot hasn't gone down (so that getting 10000 components for each bot on average equals a similar number of keys required for winning one of each in the lottery) the point still stands:

If model A gives a f2p player 1% chance of any dash in a month then model B requires that the same player will get 4 after playing 400 months. Aka Never.

Sept 29, 2017 6:01:47 GMT -5 Landy said:

It is still possible to spin and win a Dash bot directly. Why are we basing all the calculations off of components exclusively? That only serves to paint a very bleak picture of the odds.

Well if that's the case my entire argument isn't valid.

I was told by some android players that you couldn't win them directly any more - are you sure that you can?

Sept 29, 2017 6:43:51 GMT -5 Trogon said:

Grinding for components and thinking you'll ever have reasonable chance of getting enough for a bot is not remotely realistic for a typical moderately active player.

Hypothetical player for the sake of argument: plays 5 games per day, on average; completes 2 daily tasks for 60 Au per day; wins average 3 keys per game for 15 keys per day.

At 60 Au per day (1800 per month) it takes a little less than 3 months to save enough for a Lancelot or Fury.

At 15 keys per day (450 per month), that's 4 silver and 5 bronze chests per month (I know, the BM isn't an exact month, just for the sake of argument). Let's say you roll components for EVERY chest, and each silver chest you get 100 and each bronze 10. Again, those numbers are simply for the sake of argument, and are probably actually on the high side. That's 450 components per month. With 10,000 needed for one bot, you will need over 22 months of grinding, assuming you get components from EVERY chest and ALL those components you win on EVERY chest are for the SAME bot.

In other words, good luck with grinding for that Dash bot...

We really don't know about a realistic time, only experience will show us that. For instance, Pix mentioned once that you could exclude some prices from BM, maybe we will also be able to transfer some WSB or gold to components... I think we just need to see how it really goes before jumping to conclusions about how long it will take to get a robot.

What I know is that on the principle, I very much prefer to grind my way to a goal (hoping obviously that that goal is achievable), than to let a roulette to decide who gets the Dash and who doesn't, with a probability of like 1% per month at best for me to get it. At least the second version of the BM treats players more evenly instead of creating massive unfairness like in the first version.

Sept 29, 2017 7:34:34 GMT -5 Trogon said:

Sept 29, 2017 7:12:08 GMT -5 carnage said:

We really don't know about a realistic time, only experience will show us that. For instance, Pix mentioned once that you could exclude some prices from BM, maybe we will also be able to transfer some WSB or gold to components... I think we just need to see how it really goes before jumping to conclusions about how long it will take to get a robot.

What I know is that on the principle, I very much prefer to grind my way to a goal (hoping obviously that that goal is achievable), than to let a roulette to decide who gets the Dash and who doesn't, with a probability of like 1% per month at best for me to get it. At least the second version of the BM treats players more evenly instead of creating massive unfairness like in the first version.

Did you even read my analysis? I already used extremely unrealistically optimistic assumptions, such as eliminating all undesirable prizes from your BM chests. The reality is, short of a drastic price reduction from Pix or playing A LOT more games than in my example, it will take LONGER than my 22 month example to grind out a bot. You can hold on to your dreams, but the reality is that currently, the old system gave you a SMALL chance of getting a bot without paying. This new system, as it stands, gives you NO chance to get a bot without paying.

I read it and like I said, I prefer to see facts before jumping to conclusions. How can you know that one key will give you one component on average ? You don't. Only experience will tell us that.

Some people ASSUME that the previous system gave you better odds. It's only that, ASSUMPTIONS. Reality is, you don't know, and you give ASSUMPTIONS to prove a point that fits an agenda.

I could very well say that you have 0.01% of getting a Dash bot every month in the previous system. On average, it would take 100 months to get a Dash. Wow, that's over 8 years ! See what I'm doing ?

Nobody has those numbers. And nobody can say that probabilities are better one way or another. The only thing you can compare is the method : on one hand, you have a system which is totally random and can potentially create huge unfairness between players, on the other hand, you have a system which treats players more evenly. If you prefer the former, fine, but I certainly prefer the later.