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Post by zer00eyz on May 24, 2017 21:58:43 GMT -5
I would think that most of us have felt the wrath of the current MM, and the fact that sometimes you get runs of wins or losses.
Pix said something in the last update that I want to point out:
This seems like a reasonable thing to do but it presents a problem, one that you might not be aware of.
In computer science sorting things is HARD, and the code that does these sorts is described in terms like n log n and (O)1....
The problem isn't easy to solve, and it is hard to solve reliably, and quickly.
We have another clue in the system too... the 5 games you need to play to advance up or down a league. Because if you are in one list/pool and you need to be moved to another that operation might be expensive. Making sure your IN or OUT of a league is a good way to defer this operation!
My last point of data is anecdotal for now, but I will start tracking it: Streaks tend to happen in back to back games when they are over quickly. If the system updates every 30 minutes (outside promotion/demotion) it would be possible to go on a ~5 game run (assuming they are 7 minutes each) and not see the update.
I think all of these thing point to the idea that your sorted into your match based on a cached score rather than your real time score, you could be sorted based on your performance 30 minutes ago!
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Post by Insane Demon on May 24, 2017 22:10:57 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2017 22:20:11 GMT -5
I think all of these thing point to the idea that your sorted into your match based on a cached score rather than your real time score, you could be sorted based on your performance 30 minutes ago! That's what I've always thought. Start a good run, play as many as you can. Start a bad run, stop playing. |
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Post by zer00eyz on May 24, 2017 22:29:45 GMT -5
I think all of these thing point to the idea that your sorted into your match based on a cached score rather than your real time score, you could be sorted based on your performance 30 minutes ago! That's what I've always thought. Start a good run, play as many as you can. Start a bad run, stop playing. That might not help! Lets say you play 5 games in the morning for a net points gain of 45 (a good run) and then have a REAL run in the evening, 5 back to back wins and stack on another 75. Your up over 100 points now from the last streak. Not only are you due for a beatdown but taking it in the teeth is going to happen no matter how long you wait... your still going to have the points to burn off! The inverse is true as well... a back to back bad run sets you up for wins regardless of how and when you play to re-gain rank. Mix in some tankers on either end of this situation and you could compound the problem even further! |
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Post by T34 on May 24, 2017 22:44:24 GMT -5
runs of wins/losses? does the sun come up? death and taxes...?
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2017 22:44:49 GMT -5
That's what I've always thought. Start a good run, play as many as you can. Start a bad run, stop playing. That might not help! Lets say you play 5 games in the morning for a net points gain of 45 (a good run) and then have a REAL run in the evening, 5 back to back wins and stack on another 75. Your up over 100 points now from the last streak. Not only are you due for a beatdown but taking it in the teeth is going to happen no matter how long you wait... your still going to have the points to burn off! The inverse is true as well... a back to back bad run sets you up for wins regardless of how and when you play to re-gain rank. Mix in some tankers on either end of this situation and you could compound the problem even further! True, but for the end of season, might as well stay safe than drop a league. No idea if the season reset changes anything. |
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2017 23:11:01 GMT -5
Yes, but it seems to be 50 games prior. My win rate will stay at 50%, but I can't seem to win a game after a long session. Something is suspicious, how could I still be at 50% after losing so much. Check my league points, and sure enough, I've dropped like 80 points.
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Post by Шɑɡɡɪή on May 24, 2017 23:43:34 GMT -5
.
PIX's match making system looks an awful lot like the rating system in chess. I believe it's called Elo.
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Post by T34 on May 25, 2017 0:43:41 GMT -5
Its a customised/modified Elo system. However the point distribution here is different to the classical Elo system. all that said, at the end of the day it is an Elo system and is designed to produce a 50/50 win loss ratio in the long run. this also means that players will settle in at a relatively narrow band once equilibrium is reached. no going up or down. Can you go up the ranks? yes, upgrade, buy better gear and squad. Go down - tank/fade/put crappy bots in the hanger and play with them for a long time.........
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Post by procrastinatron on May 25, 2017 0:49:07 GMT -5
Id say yes. A few weeks ago i reached silver 2 (android) for the very first time then i got beat down back to high bronze. For the past few days, im on a big winning streak, from silver 3 almosg blasted to gold 3 (doing the challenge thing to enter gold) and 66% win rate, with a 6/7 hangar. Im expecting a hard beat down soon.
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Post by justsomeguy on May 25, 2017 8:16:04 GMT -5
Yes, but it seems to be 50 games prior. My win rate will stay at 50%, but I can't seem to win a game after a long session. Something is suspicious, how could I still be at 50% after losing so much. Check my league points, and sure enough, I've dropped like 80 points. This is just one of the things that make the win rate statistics so wrong to use in any kind of MM mechanism with an exception of grouping. There are definitely streaks. Now, imagine a hypothetical example where you won last 30 battles and lost 20 before. The battles further back are forever forgotten of course. Your War Robots is, obviously, at 60% so the beat down starts. At least for me, the beat down doesn't consist of a streak of losses. It's just a streak of finishing in the bottom 2 places regardless of the end result. In our hypothetical example, I would probably win at least few of the next 20 battles (and when I say win, I mean carried to win by my teammates, kicking and screaming) and so my War Robots would rise instead of fall. What would definitely fall would be my league rating. What did I want to say by all this? You can lose/gain hundreds of rating points with your War Robots remaining the same or even going in the other direction (depending on where you are between the streaks). My record so far is losing about 140 points with War Robots 2% (or one win) up. Using both league rating and War Robots for MM is foolish and I hope the devs are not doing that (or they will stop doing that if they do). |
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Post by mechtout on May 25, 2017 8:38:41 GMT -5
based on play alone (no science), it seems like each squad of solos has three strong players, and 3 lesser players. Always wondered if your streak is high enough, are you ranked as one of the strong positions even through you are not in a strong league yourself (expert vs masters/champions), hence making your team at a disadvantage? or are you just placed in squads with players in leagues above your level, which i notice as well. I dont mind the latter but when you have a group of experts vs champions, thats just stupid.
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Post by SunTsu on May 25, 2017 8:50:38 GMT -5
Good post, I agree there is definitely a short term effect to streaks. Although, when I did get up to around a 70% win rate I noticed the matches got extremely tough, as an expert I was almost always matched up against Champion and above.
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Post by SoCalGrndR on May 25, 2017 10:36:08 GMT -5
I would say there are 2 possible streak scenarios:
- Win rate to high
- Challenge battles for next tier
I have experienced both, the worst by far was getting thrashed from 60's War Robots to 28% War Robots. Beyond frustrating.
Also, I have experienced MM making it virtually impossible to advance to next tier. I was at 3495 league points on Monday, stopped playing, planning to make my run fresh the next day for Expert II.
I started with a V then L, then MM decided not to let me advance. Then next 8 battles - Lost 6! I was up against (ns dark elite), then later 2 of 3 battles I was matched against the (Illuminaty Corp Clan). These are full CHAMPION Squads 12/12 hangars. I'm 9.3/10.8 hangar in Expert III. That I had to face the Illuminaty clan 2x in 3 battles playing solo, (the only pilot with this privilege) is BULL?poo-poo?! The battles were NOT 2 min slaughters, but they were markedly 1-sided, all of our bots were destroyed. I was at 52% War Robots when this started, now at 44% and low 34xx points.
Sorry, rant is over. Just my latest experience with wonderment that is the MM league system.
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