True component prices in daily deals

UPDATE: I have added a bit more data and the Au prices make a lot more sense now. All Dash bots are roughly the same price. Also, the ratio between items between Au and WSP are constant now, so there is no preference to get either item via WSP or AU (WSP may still be cheaper to get). Also, there is now a cost for Ember in WSP. I have updated all values below.

So I have run the math on 4 days 5 days worth of component deals and I believe the results are stable enough to share. The model of the in-game currency to component conversion rates I describe here was able to predict todays prices to within 1%.

(I find it sad that we need to spend our time analyzing the gambling and money parts of the game instead of discussing bot setups and strategies. But this is the state of this game today.)

WSP per 1 component (without discount, updated 11/29/2017)
K    8.4784
H    8.5147
B    8.5213
I     11.1875
Sc  2.7592
T    2.8426
Sh  3.8115
E    5.6017            (no offer for Ember from WSP in my data)

Au per 1 component (without discount, updated 11/29/2017)
K    3.0217
H    3.4219
B    3.1933
I     4.4376
Sc  0.9763
T    0.9723
Sh  1.2609
E    2.1897

So what does this mean?

- For example, I received this offer today: 360 Haechi components + 240 Shocktrain components for 700 Au at a "profit" of 55%. The price calculated with the numbers I calculated would be 1548 Au, or with the 55% profit, 696.6 Au. Which is an error of less than 0.5%.

- Underlying prices are most likely fixed, the data clearly indicates that.

- The total cost for component gear can now be calculated, for example, a Haechi would cost ~ 86000 WSP, or at a 30% discount, 60000 WSP. Or in Au, it would cost ~27000 Au or at a 50% discount 13500 Au.   ~34000 Au or at a 50% discount 17000 Au.

- You really shouldn't be buying Au offers for Kumiho unless you really, really want one.

- You can now calculate how much of an offer really contributes to your goal(s) and optimize your spending. For example, if all you want is a Haechi and a hypothetical deal was to offer the same amount of Haechi and Kumiho components for Au, it would be a bad deal for you because more of your Au actually goes towards that Kumiho. Try to buy offers where the component you're interested in makes up at least 50 % of the total cost.

- Benefit of Au->WSP conversion. For example a single Haechi component costs ~3x WSP than Au. If we apply the typical discounts (30% and 50%), it becomes 4.5x. So this means, as long as you can get more then 4.5 WSP for a single piece of Au, then it would be better to get the corresponding WSP deal instead of the Au deal for Haechi.

(I have used this least squares solver here: comnuan.com/cmnn01003/. If you want to run the math yourself, PM me and I can share my Excel sheet.)