suggested reading for everyone crying about black market
Sept 11, 2017 1:47:13 GMT -5
MahWaffle, shakree, and 1 more like this
Post by linearblade on Sept 11, 2017 1:47:13 GMT -5
www.amazon.com/Beat-Dealer-Winning-Strategy-Twenty-One/dp/0394703103
no, my link code is not on this. I do not profit from you reading this. I dont need the 10 cents in commission or whatever I would get from reccomending it.
What is this? Its a book beating the game of blackjack. Why is it relevant to you?
its not terribly relevant other than 2 points
1) its gambling. and when you play black market, you are gambling too
2) the most salient point in the book is to know how many hits to pay off.
-over the short term, you could win or lose. its random who does
-in the long term, assuming you are playing perfectly, mathematically you will win.
-HOWEVER, in order t make it long term, you have to survive the swings of ups and down
-this means a betting strategy that will not bust out too early.
this is relevant to all the complainers b/c you are complaining about not getting a magical dash bot for 20 bucks. you cant even buy a retail priced galahad for 20 bucks. why are you even complaining about this
using some simple logic, we can easily infer pricing for dash bots. we can extrapolate from the medium bot pricing (a minimumm of 2500 gold, or $25 usd) the heavy bot pricing (50 usd) and the wil bots (ranging 50-140usd)
the medium wild bot costs 7k influence, or 7k au (au can buy influence at 1:!) this is the medium bot.
we know dash bots are at least medium, although they are likely a special type of medium, as they are better. so we can say the pricing is probably at an absolute minimum 25 dollars.
we can say they are at a maximum 140 dollars
and likely at least 70 dollars.
I think its a safe bet to say dash bots are better than a Doc (70), realistically they are better than a butch (140) as well, but dash bots dont have a sniper variant, so lets say its around 100 -140 dollars.
as I have said numerous times, it looks like its consistantly 1-2 pieces of content per 100 dollar 1 time buy (giving you 13 spins), but realistically closer to 2 content per 100 dollar buy.
How do I know this? B/c I have done the hard work and spent a few bucks to get some gold crates on this and prior events.
so, to the point. if you are expecting to get a dash at 20 dollars spent, you would have less than a 1% chance to acquire one. we all know super > gold > silver > bronze. but what you may not realize, is that each one is COMPARATIVELY BETTER. as in, 1 super > 3 gold > 33 silver> 333 bronze.
its actually even larger than that. I'm gonna trust that you can do alittle research yourself and are capable of basic math.
you would expect to roll 20 gold / super crates to acquire 1-2 new gear. lets say 2.
if you spent 20 dollars you would get NOT 1/5, but something like 1/6 the chance (golds are better than 10 silver)
2/6 is STILL less than 1. you should not expect to get a dash.
But I spent 100 dollars and I didnt get one!
remember what I said, in order to come out in the long term, you need to have a chip stack able to ride out random fluctuations.
here is a 20 sided die roller roll 20 times the d20 die (aka 20d20)
www.wizards.com/dnd/dice/dice.htm
this is your expected result for a 5% chance, any time you roll a 20, you have scored a new content (3 dash + 1 scourge). now you have to roll which dash you get.
if we assume 10% chance (that is, 19 ad 20 yield new content)
here is a sample roll
Roll(20d20)+0:
19,14,17,11,5,3,7,2,12,13,12,5,9,16,18,6,2,6,15,17
you will notice I RECEIVED NO 20 rolling a 20 sided die, but I did get a 19
now, if I rolled 100 times:
Roll(100d20)+0:
15,9,18,9,10,17,20,6,13,8,15,3,4,13,18,4,3,16,4,3,20,6,17,13,9,9,7,12,9,10,11,15,17,4,2,10,1,12,1,2,10,14,18,14,3,16,7,15,14,14,15,13,20,17,13,12,3,20,18,14,4,3,12,5,17,16,17,1,16,6,18,8,13,11,9,11,14,10,8,5,4,2,14,6,7,15,6,11,10,3,5,3,10,19,2,1,7,9,2,11
4 20s.
now, as I suspected, the yield is higher than 5% (aka rolling a 20) and lower than or equal to 10%, (19-20)
so I recommend before complaining , that if you are going to spend, your budget would likely be 100 dollars at a minimum.
at 100 dollars spent, you WILL receive many things that are rare, just not exactly what you want. if you are someone who has never spent real money, then the likelihood you get something useful in EXCESS of the value of what you spent is high. extremely high.
if you are however a veteran who has everything already, then you are getting very little.
I find it curious that the biggest whiners here are the newb, who could actually use almost everything supplied by the black market, and yet no whining by the veterans who spend thousands to get their bots.
1 dash bot will not make your hanger. you wont even be able to equip it. but the 100 dollars spent will certainly yield orkans and lancelots and other staples for your hanger.
so please , NO MORE CRYING.
no, my link code is not on this. I do not profit from you reading this. I dont need the 10 cents in commission or whatever I would get from reccomending it.
What is this? Its a book beating the game of blackjack. Why is it relevant to you?
its not terribly relevant other than 2 points
1) its gambling. and when you play black market, you are gambling too
2) the most salient point in the book is to know how many hits to pay off.
-over the short term, you could win or lose. its random who does
-in the long term, assuming you are playing perfectly, mathematically you will win.
-HOWEVER, in order t make it long term, you have to survive the swings of ups and down
-this means a betting strategy that will not bust out too early.
this is relevant to all the complainers b/c you are complaining about not getting a magical dash bot for 20 bucks. you cant even buy a retail priced galahad for 20 bucks. why are you even complaining about this
using some simple logic, we can easily infer pricing for dash bots. we can extrapolate from the medium bot pricing (a minimumm of 2500 gold, or $25 usd) the heavy bot pricing (50 usd) and the wil bots (ranging 50-140usd)
the medium wild bot costs 7k influence, or 7k au (au can buy influence at 1:!) this is the medium bot.
we know dash bots are at least medium, although they are likely a special type of medium, as they are better. so we can say the pricing is probably at an absolute minimum 25 dollars.
we can say they are at a maximum 140 dollars
and likely at least 70 dollars.
I think its a safe bet to say dash bots are better than a Doc (70), realistically they are better than a butch (140) as well, but dash bots dont have a sniper variant, so lets say its around 100 -140 dollars.
as I have said numerous times, it looks like its consistantly 1-2 pieces of content per 100 dollar 1 time buy (giving you 13 spins), but realistically closer to 2 content per 100 dollar buy.
How do I know this? B/c I have done the hard work and spent a few bucks to get some gold crates on this and prior events.
so, to the point. if you are expecting to get a dash at 20 dollars spent, you would have less than a 1% chance to acquire one. we all know super > gold > silver > bronze. but what you may not realize, is that each one is COMPARATIVELY BETTER. as in, 1 super > 3 gold > 33 silver> 333 bronze.
its actually even larger than that. I'm gonna trust that you can do alittle research yourself and are capable of basic math.
you would expect to roll 20 gold / super crates to acquire 1-2 new gear. lets say 2.
if you spent 20 dollars you would get NOT 1/5, but something like 1/6 the chance (golds are better than 10 silver)
2/6 is STILL less than 1. you should not expect to get a dash.
But I spent 100 dollars and I didnt get one!
remember what I said, in order to come out in the long term, you need to have a chip stack able to ride out random fluctuations.
here is a 20 sided die roller roll 20 times the d20 die (aka 20d20)
www.wizards.com/dnd/dice/dice.htm
this is your expected result for a 5% chance, any time you roll a 20, you have scored a new content (3 dash + 1 scourge). now you have to roll which dash you get.
if we assume 10% chance (that is, 19 ad 20 yield new content)
here is a sample roll
Roll(20d20)+0:
19,14,17,11,5,3,7,2,12,13,12,5,9,16,18,6,2,6,15,17
you will notice I RECEIVED NO 20 rolling a 20 sided die, but I did get a 19
now, if I rolled 100 times:
Roll(100d20)+0:
15,9,18,9,10,17,20,6,13,8,15,3,4,13,18,4,3,16,4,3,20,6,17,13,9,9,7,12,9,10,11,15,17,4,2,10,1,12,1,2,10,14,18,14,3,16,7,15,14,14,15,13,20,17,13,12,3,20,18,14,4,3,12,5,17,16,17,1,16,6,18,8,13,11,9,11,14,10,8,5,4,2,14,6,7,15,6,11,10,3,5,3,10,19,2,1,7,9,2,11
4 20s.
now, as I suspected, the yield is higher than 5% (aka rolling a 20) and lower than or equal to 10%, (19-20)
so I recommend before complaining , that if you are going to spend, your budget would likely be 100 dollars at a minimum.
at 100 dollars spent, you WILL receive many things that are rare, just not exactly what you want. if you are someone who has never spent real money, then the likelihood you get something useful in EXCESS of the value of what you spent is high. extremely high.
if you are however a veteran who has everything already, then you are getting very little.
I find it curious that the biggest whiners here are the newb, who could actually use almost everything supplied by the black market, and yet no whining by the veterans who spend thousands to get their bots.
1 dash bot will not make your hanger. you wont even be able to equip it. but the 100 dollars spent will certainly yield orkans and lancelots and other staples for your hanger.
so please , NO MORE CRYING.
