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Post by Dredd77 on May 4, 2017 13:26:53 GMT -5
You know how to start...but do you know when to stop? I break it down in today's By the Numbers feature- and address the concern of inflated Wild Bunch pricing's effect on the chests' value. |
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Post by Deadalready on May 4, 2017 14:01:39 GMT -5
Quick suggestion, the pictures you use for your tables are rather small (at least on my monitor/settings).
What would be nice is either a DL for your spreadsheets or atleast a bigger version at the end, ultimately the pictures could do an increase in sizes.
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Post by hi5 on May 4, 2017 14:16:09 GMT -5
Great stuff as usual!
Any suggestions on minimal gold outlay? I've got 4K au and pretty sure it would not get me a superchest - do I pass on spinning the wheel unless I purchase (or earn) more?
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Post by Scuzzbopper on May 4, 2017 14:16:18 GMT -5
Quick suggestion, the pictures you use for your tables are rather small (at least on my monitor/settings). What would be nice is either a DL for your spreadsheets or atleast a bigger version at the end, ultimately the pictures could do an increase in sizes. Seconded. |
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Post by Scuzzbopper on May 4, 2017 14:19:12 GMT -5
Great stuff as usual! Any suggestions on minimal gold outlay? I've got 4K au and pretty sure it would not get me a supershet - do I pass on spinning the wheel unless I purchase (or earn) more? I'd wager that you'll get a superchest with that much if you keep spinning with your winnings. |
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Post by arakos on May 4, 2017 14:26:47 GMT -5
Great stuff as usual! Any suggestions on minimal gold outlay? I've got 4K au and pretty sure it would not get me a superchest - do I pass on spinning the wheel unless I purchase (or earn) more? Good question. I think 5k is what you need, on average. But Dredd might have the right answer... |
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MaximusClash
Destrier
Posts: 46
Karma: 35
Pilot name: MaximusClash
Platform: Android
Clan: Aurora Proxima
League: Silver
Server Region: North America
Favorite robot: Twin Trident Carnage
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Post by MaximusClash on May 4, 2017 14:27:44 GMT -5
Excellent number crunching there Lord Dredd, thank you for taking the time to do the math and also for taking the time to share your findings. Appreciate your time.
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Post by Dredd77 on May 4, 2017 14:35:14 GMT -5
Great stuff as usual! Any suggestions on minimal gold outlay? I've got 4K au and pretty sure it would not get me a supershet - do I pass on spinning the wheel unless I purchase (or earn) more? I'd wager that you'll get a superchest with that much if you keep spinning with your winnings. Here's a funny thing about that- after awhile, it got to where you almost didn't want to win a bot or weapon, because it meant you weren't going to get a rebate. So there's no assurance there will be enough winnings to do it. Now that said, the EV on a Gold chest if everything you can win is good with you is +20%, so over a number of spins that works out pretty well. But your odds of losing value is 2 in 3 (ish), so the less you play, the more you're subject to risk. If it was me? I'd play once, and make a decision from there. The most you can lose without winning anything is "only" 500Au. |
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Post by hi5 on May 4, 2017 14:53:07 GMT -5
I'd wager that you'll get a superchest with that much if you keep spinning with your winnings. Here's a funny thing about that- after awhile, it got to where you almost didn't want to win a bot or weapon, because it meant you weren't going to get a rebate. So there's no assurance there will be enough winnings to do it. Now that said, the EV on a Gold chest if everything you can win is good with you is +20%, so over a number of spins that works out pretty well. But your odds of losing value is 2 in 3 (ish), so the less you play, the more you're subject to risk. If it was me? I'd play once, and make a decision from there. The most you can lose without winning anything is "only" 500Au. Like the logic there, I think I'll give it a go. Thanks! |
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Post by Dredd77 on May 4, 2017 14:57:03 GMT -5
Here's a funny thing about that- after awhile, it got to where you almost didn't want to win a bot or weapon, because it meant you weren't going to get a rebate. So there's no assurance there will be enough winnings to do it. Now that said, the EV on a Gold chest if everything you can win is good with you is +20%, so over a number of spins that works out pretty well. But your odds of losing value is 2 in 3 (ish), so the less you play, the more you're subject to risk. If it was me? I'd play once, and make a decision from there. The most you can lose without winning anything is "only" 500Au. Like the logic there, I think I'll give it a go. Thanks! Come back and tell us how it went!!!!!  |
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Post by Paps on May 4, 2017 17:10:39 GMT -5
Seen this already on zuckerbook earlier, but I like givin' credit where it's due. Worthwhile read, as always. Thanks for the effort! ?
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typewriter
Destrier
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Posts: 61
Karma: 42
Pilot name: Typewriter
Platform: Android
Clan: [Шικ²] ШικΣd
League: Silver
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Post by typewriter on May 4, 2017 17:47:08 GMT -5
Regarding the pricing of the wild west bots, or any items for that matter: if I have to make a decision on whether or not to spin, i would just assign my value to the items. For example, I don't have a jesse and having one would be nice. But even if it were priced at 1250 gold I still wouldn't buy it now.
The most I would pay to buy a jesse is sth like 500. In that case I'll just assign 500 to the item.
That would give an even better assessment of the EV (of the value to the user) of the spin outcomes.
Also, I think there are 2 minor things your method does not account for.
The first is the bankroll. If the player has less than 8000 gold and is never going to spend money, there is always some chance that he'd go below 1k gold before reaching the super chest, and thus not able to get the super chest value contributed by previous spins.
The second is that values of items can change in one cycle. Let's say you don't have a Fury, and you are willing to buy it at full price so the value is 5k to you. But you'll never want to run a second one, so a second one would be worth 0.
Now on the first spin the EV is X according to the values you assign to the items. If you get a Fury on the first spin, the EV of your second spin will be <X because the value of a Fury went from 5k to 0.
If the EV is marginally positive before the first spin (which is my current case), it can easily go negative during the course of a cycle and net out negative overall.
Just nitpicking tho. Thank you for the nice article. Always a joy to read.
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Post by Dredd77 on May 4, 2017 17:52:07 GMT -5
Regarding the pricing of the wild west bots, or any items for that matter: if I have to make a decision on whether or not to spin, i would just assign my value to the items. For example, I don't have a jesse and having one would be nice. But even if it were priced at 1250 gold I still wouldn't buy it now. The most I would pay to buy a jesse is sth like 500. In that case I'll just assign 500 to the item. That would give an even better assessment of the EV (of the value to the user) of the spin outcomes. Also, I think there are 2 minor things your method does not account for. The first is the bankroll. If the player has less than 8000 gold and is never going to spend money, there is always some chance that he'd go below 1k gold before reaching the super chest, and thus not able to get the super chest value contributed by previous spins. The second is that values of items can change in one cycle. Let's say you don't have a Fury, and you are willing to buy it at full price so the value is 5k to you. But you'll never want to run a second one, so a second one would be worth 0. Now on the first spin the EV is X according to the values you assign to the items. If you get a Fury on the first spin, the EV of your second spin will be <X because the value of a Fury went from 5k to 0. If the EV is marginally positive before the first spin (which is my current case), it can easily go negative during the course of a cycle and net out negative overall. Just nitpicking tho. Thank you for the nice article. Always a joy to read. These are the kind of points that often go unnoticed, but they're really damned good. Ideally, if someone was super smart about this, they'd recalculate their EV after each roll. Most folks don't get that granular, so they get fifteen Gepards even if they come out ahead. If you want to get SUPER granular, though, we need to include the Ag values of surplus bots. And that's a whole lot deeper than I'm willing to go for a casual guidance column.  Thanks for the feedback, bro. |
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2017 18:42:43 GMT -5
I was playing last night and chatting with some of the guys in Discord and mentioned to them you were up to five slots and got a Fury. (Had to check out your hanger cause I saw you green in my friends list the last couple days.) Kind of figured you had bought the 14,000 gold. Glad you posted the results and this is a very well written article.  |
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Post by hi5 on May 5, 2017 15:31:23 GMT -5
Like the logic there, I think I'll give it a go. Thanks! Come back and tell us how it went!!!!! Back to report on my adventures in War Robots gambling. It was a complete failure until the last two spins, but I am satisfied with the results. Not elated but certainly not disappointed. Overall, a good experience and glad I did it. My hangar had minimal gold gear before (5 slots of course): 4 orks, 1 Galahad, 2 Aphids and various wsp and silver gear. I also have won the aphid and gekko via event tasks. No skins - pointless IMO unless ur max. I had 4,063 hard earned gold as I'm a F2P gamer and here is the breakdown by spins (note: I had opened about five 100 au chests on day 1 so the super chest bar had a little on it) - 750 au (ok, NBD) - 500 au (it's ok, 2 more spins - I'll get something) - Gekko (rats!) - 500 au (playing on "winnings" now and sweating bullets) - 900 au (ugh, another loss but I still have life) - 700 au (my luck is TERRIBLE!) - Doc! (mixture of joy and sweet relief!) Superchest *wipes sweat off phone screen and closes eyes before spinning* --- Fury! Was hoping more for a Lance or Gary and not a huge Fury fan but I'll take it! Feel like I got my money back, had some fun and added some nice gear. Doc should be fun and at least I get a collectors bot. Ended with 376 au. Thanks to all for your advice and work to crunch the numbers and convince this gambling averse skeptic to roll the dice! *rubbs hands together*. Now what do I put on Doc . . . |
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Post by Dredd77 on May 5, 2017 15:44:11 GMT -5
hi5 Tulumbas for midrange support, or my personal favorite. And grats on the winnings! I won a Fury as well, didn't think I'd like it but actually a lot more fun than I expected it to be.
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Post by ou812gr8m8 on May 5, 2017 16:38:06 GMT -5
Loving the diaries. Good work Dredd.
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