Beacon Ties are NOT Random (Data Collection)

Off the top of my head, your p value is definitely less than .05

I cant believe you tested this... Talk about drilling down on something...


Random? This one is pretty damn deliberate...

Carefull dude, going against mainstream opinions probably will get you banned. They working on he rules.....

I like that we have a standing theory on this with some proof to back it up. It might not be true, but it's a start. I will take notice of beacon ties from now on, be it mine or others. Not that hard to tap in and check their profiles.

Personally, I still think it has something more to do with flipping reds counting more. And being the first to flip the last red that results in an eventual tie will get you the win. I can't really back it up though, just observations. But yours is a fresh angle I have yet to consider in my games.

Wait...

Strayed just debunked it.

I always got the feeling the tie breaker went to the last player to cap a beacon before the match ended, but I could be totally wrong.

Well that theory was short lived.

I do wish it were this simple and this fair. However I've lost ties to Stalker pilots who cap two or three (usually Yama) beacons at the start of the game and then eject leaving us to play 5v6. There's no way anyone can liberate less beacons than them.

I seldom get annoyed at this game, but those cases make me hate seeing Stalkers on Blue and really stick out in my memory. It's unlikely.

There is no way it's random... I've been keeping track for a month or so, and I'm ~8% of getting gold when tied. I'd love to know what the actual logic here is.

Another possible theory:

Partial caps weigh less than full caps.

If a teammate starts the cap and you jump on to speed it up, you each get credited for a cap. However, since the teammate initiated the cap, they receive the gold.

Theory is completely based on speculation with no proof whatsoever.

Yeah that's what started me thinking and taking observations. I have a clanmate (Fishin_Chip)  who never wins beacon ties ever since he moved to the daughter clan, whereas he reports that he used to do so often when originally in the parent clan and sometimes does so in squads with experienced players.

Although anecdotal, his streak suggested that there's some factor in play which pushes the beacon tie in the favour of weaker / less experienced players, and so I set out to test that.

I'm sorry to hear that you have the same issue! Is there any information you could provide about your account / playstyle which might help us figure this out?



Thanks for making the effort to take observations! Quick question, is everyone involved L30? Thus far all Black Swan examples have a non-L30 involved. Would love to see your screenies in either case.

I'm extremely puzzled why I can observe a streak of 50 all supporting my hypothesis (seemed like very strong data to me) but then others can come up with refuting evidence so quickly; there's obviously something in the kind of matches / tier I'm playing where it works, but it doesn't work everywhere. Can't decide whether I'm frustrated or extremely excited by the potential of this.

Well the data was so strong it had me curious so no problem..

I agree as well, a 50/50 streak is beyond compelling alone as a case and would pass any statistics based analysis. So much that I expected to lose ties and was surprised here.

I had two, one was a two way, one was a three way where I won both... I hit the wrong button before getting the third screen cap so anyways... based on what I did get, I'm at 30 and whoever I beat out at 28 or so. This must mean it's not just levels either. So the guy with more wins or higher level is not automatically anything.

I saw somewhere, don't recall now, but looking into this a while back it said the center beacon is worth a bit more than the others. Not in beacon cap counts, but weighted heavier in calculations behind the scenes.

So it may be important to say that my approach for beacons includes both a run for most in numbers and I always try for center beacon first, Even in shenzen.

Usually it costs me a bot and is a pretty high price to pay just for one beacon but, my tact usually gets me center first, usually costs me that bot and usually gets my team to at least 3-2 to open. This is good cuz: Advantage me in beacons, advantage team in beacons, and maybe is a more productive demise for an opening capper that I'm gonna play til dead anyways... dunno there... but I think this may be relevant because I seem to win a lot of ties so which one you grab might be the factor in this mix, as well as, how long that grab then lasts.

I don't have seen caps on this so a theory I'd offer up is when conditions limit me to 2 beacons in the finally tally, it seems I never win. When 3 I win quite a bit, ties too, as 3 seems to be a common count. 4 or more usually closes the door outright and is a winner most everytime. Personally, my approach is to try and manage 3 or more and will almost always include center if I can.

Off this topic a hair, going 3-2 to open.. which sometimes is 3-0 on screen, seems to lead to alot of 4-1 and 5-0 starts which are devastating to the red bar. This is a more rare start but when I've seen it, it seem we win everytime. My record on 5-0 is a minute ten and was in squad with 4/6 clan and it just played out that we went blitzkrieg from hell and mowed our way right thru the center of shenzen. Who does that LOL.

Oh snap... viewing/comprehending/posting accurately by phone just isn't possible in threads like this is it?


Ouch......

I have been playing about 2 months and my tag starts with C. But I like your thinking. If someone were to register multiple new accounts within seconds of each other, we might learn something.

-Amid