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Post by hyderier on Mar 21, 2017 14:47:28 GMT -5
One common question/assumption seems to be, wether MM forces win rate of 50%, and gives you harder or easier games based on it.
Maybe this poll will shed some light on this.
Why this is important is, it determines if damage, damage, damage is still what decides league advancement. With enforced or even just biased towards 50% win rate, average damage placement determines league advancement (average position of 3.5 in damage staying in the same place with 50% win rate), and trying to rise by winning more is still futile (MM will give you harder matches until your win rate drops).
However, if MM only cares about your league, then if you're better than others at winning, you can keep higher win rate, and go up in leagues even with lower damage placement.
Let's see, shall we :-)
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Post by Deleted on Mar 21, 2017 14:49:29 GMT -5
Mine is 70% in Diamond 3, usually playing in Diamond 2 to Expert 3 matches (thanks matchmaking). Don't know how long the win rate will stay at a 70%...
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Post by Dejnov on Mar 21, 2017 14:52:57 GMT -5
Mine is 62% in Diamond I. I've only truly gotten trounced when the red team had a ringer on their side. Now that that has been severely curtailed, I've found I win most of my games on a regular basis. And I'm advancing steadily.
Dejnov.
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Post by [apotheosis] on Mar 21, 2017 14:54:01 GMT -5
In gold3/silver1 I stay pretty consistently between 55 and 65
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Post by ShutUpAndSmokeMyWeed on Mar 21, 2017 14:56:03 GMT -5
Maxed players span all the way from Expert to Champion/Legend, so how is it irrelevant...
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Post by Team Alpha Strike on Mar 21, 2017 15:06:52 GMT -5
I'm in the low 60s for wins and that's around where it hovers. There are disastrous periods though where I'll lose say 7 out of 10 matches days for a few days and I'll drop to below 50% for that period before popping back up again. Most of those long loss runs are when I get long runs of randoms versus clans. This is one of those matches and it was in a run where I went 2 wins in 10. Unfortunately, many pilots quit when facing full clans now, as it's only 6 lousy points between the top and bottom pilot on the losing team. Today I played 3 matches to get 2 tasks done and all 3 were clans versus randoms - I was lucky to win 1 of the 3. The 2 loses had a quitter in 1 and the damage whoring in the other where everyone gave up and dropped into MRS support to just not end up in the bottom for damages. Needless to it was a close to a break even day from a stats perspective and I'm glad it only took 3 matches to finish two tasks - cause I'm done for the day.  |
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Post by SoCalGrndR on Mar 21, 2017 16:02:37 GMT -5
Diamond II
54 - 66% War Robots, been hovering closer to 60 as of late.
Just made Diamond II yesterday & steady going so far, near 2750 cups, half way to Diamond I. Made 300 Au in past 2 days crossing tiers! Closing in on my Fury $4540 Au & leveling 3rd Trident now - should have a 8/9/10 Trident set to mount when I purchase.
I am seeing more clan play, thrilling to take down 5 or 6 squad clan.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 21, 2017 17:34:44 GMT -5
The OP is asking a number of questions, not all of which can be revealed by the outcome of the poll.
Average damage used to be important. It is meaningless now - if you start high enough, you can tank down to almost zero average damage and still see mid-high end hangars. Rating points are the main backbone of the system, though I do not believe they are the only factor being taken into consideration.
Very high win percentages are still possible. I believe mine is currently 82% but it will be brought down to earth soon enough. The ability to weather a poor team is necessary to keep a high winning percentage... and that becomes more and more difficult as you move up in leagues.
I don't believe the MM regularly uses the heavy-handed approach of stacking the red team against you when you start to win too much - if that was the case, it would be quite detectable by simple observation. You might get put into battles where you are the weakest hangar (happened to me a lot just before the leagues came out), which limits your influence on the outcomes, and you might get stuck with a "dud" on your team, which makes it very hard to win. The questions would be: how much of this is just random and how much is by design?
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Post by Ⅎ₹ѺC₭₩ELDEℲ₹ on Mar 21, 2017 17:46:23 GMT -5
If you red line your hanger to get peak damage you are going move your Average damage up only to reach players with the same average damage who are not redlining and have extra to spare..that's when you start getting smacked down. Pay attention to your damage score... as it rises you will get higher damage capacity opponents.
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Post by Thunderkiss on Mar 21, 2017 18:58:58 GMT -5
Expert III, almost expert II, bounce between %60-%74 regularly.
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Post by shivaswrath on Mar 21, 2017 21:44:21 GMT -5
I'm at top of Diamond 3 bottom of Diamond 2 and what I've noticed is that as soon as I get to 75% or so, my win rate plummets.
It's like the MM realizes I'm winning too much and I get slammed with Expert league players.
I've started working the MM more though now and switch my hangar from a damage focused 2 heavy/3 medium setup to sometimes a 1 heavy/2 light/ 2 medium setup (all between 8/8 and 8/9) so that it won't catch me on a streak and beat me...With this new approach I can stay in the 60-65% range.
I'm debating upgrading my Carnage to a 9 vs the Ancilot to a 9 for this reason...I fear heavies really impact the MM still.
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Post by KaneoheGrown on Mar 22, 2017 4:19:23 GMT -5
Its been a rough week for me. I happened to take a screenshot of my hangar on the 16th (prior to the point distribution change).  Decent stats, wasn't doing too bad over all. Moved from Expert 3 (initial placement) to Master 3 slowly and steadily. I'll admit when I knew we were going to lose I'd swap to damage only and attempt to minimize point losses. Then the points change shifted I feel like I got placed in MM's dog house. While my damage and kill ratio went up, my win % has plummeted. I haven't really changed how I play (except I'm going balls to the wall for the win), but the quality of blues has seemed to go down for me. (Screen shot from tonight's stats).  Overall I honestly could care less about the league placement. What's telling is the amount of points lost (at net). This gives a good indication as to how many games I've lost in the last 5 days (a large amount of losses since any win would offset a loss). After the third day of regular losses, I started keeping track of players on both teams. What I've noticed is I'm being paired with players from gold through expert (even when I was still in Master). Maybe one expert, two diamond, and the odd gold. Reds (outside of squads) have generally been 1-2 Masters (or 1 Champion) and 2 or 3 experts and the odd diamond or gold player. While anecdotal, it "feels" like MM is pairing me with inferior blues (unless I squad up). Not sure if this is due to a smaller player pool or an MM punishment. Least to say it's been rough (and I'm not the only top end player feeling it...) |
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Post by K A Z on Mar 22, 2017 4:55:35 GMT -5
I went up to 76% a week ago or so...and got punished for that lol; now it's 58%. I'm always the one with with lowest upgrades in the hangar  EDIT: I do not intend to go off-topic here, but is the league Au award being given each month or only once in the lifetime (i.e. getting only additional/balance Au after reaching new highest league)? |
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Post by lilryry on Mar 22, 2017 5:09:31 GMT -5
60>40>60>40 is the cycle I'm on, extremely frustrating on the way down and not really rewarding on the way up knowing I'm supposed to be winning the matches...all in all a failing mm
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Post by wildboar on Mar 22, 2017 6:27:17 GMT -5
I feel it goes into smackdown mode when % hits high 50s ..I went from high 60s to low 40s on one cycle - that was really painful
Now hovering high 50s waiting for the smackdown
On another note - I got 4 [to hangar] in quick succession last night and dropped 100 ish league point when added to the couple of real losses ... bad night last night
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Post by miscanthus on Mar 22, 2017 7:21:52 GMT -5
I'm in Gold III atm and have a 70% win rate. A week ago I was at 42%. The big fluctuations get really frustrating. I play 90% solo and squad about 10% of the time. Hopefully it all settles down in the future.
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Post by Tonka on Mar 22, 2017 22:43:53 GMT -5
Its been a rough week for me. I happened to take a screenshot of my hangar on the 16th (prior to the point distribution change). Decent stats, wasn't doing too bad over all. Moved from Expert 3 (initial placement) to Master 3 slowly and steadily. I'll admit when I knew we were going to lose I'd swap to damage only and attempt to minimize point losses. Then the points change shifted I feel like I got placed in MM's dog house. While my damage and kill ratio went up, my win % has plummeted. I haven't really changed how I play (except I'm going balls to the wall for the win), but the quality of blues has seemed to go down for me. (Screen shot from tonight's stats). Overall I honestly could care less about the league placement. What's telling is the amount of points lost (at net). This gives a good indication as to how many games I've lost in the last 5 days (a large amount of losses since any win would offset a loss). After the third day of regular losses, I started keeping track of players on both teams. What I've noticed is I'm being paired with players from gold through expert (even when I was still in Master). Maybe one expert, two diamond, and the odd gold. Reds (outside of squads) have generally been 1-2 Masters (or 1 Champion) and 2 or 3 experts and the odd diamond or gold player. While anecdotal, it "feels" like MM is pairing me with inferior blues (unless I squad up). Not sure if this is due to a smaller player pool or an MM punishment. Least to say it's been rough (and I'm not the only top end player feeling it...) Agreed. This is exactly what I'm experiencing. I don't like going from a consistent 70% to 1 out of 5 since the update. |
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Post by whatttupG on Mar 23, 2017 19:26:18 GMT -5
The answer to you question is yes, but its yes because win rate is a result of what's happening, it doesn't cause or drive anything.
My rate has been as low as 40'ish and topped out around 76 I think, today its 48, it was just at 54, it's bouncing around 50 from what I can see. If you get on a win streak I think you invoke harder play, if you get on a losing streak then you get easier play, it may be just a theory I don't know but combined with damage numbers, squad strengths, random math stats, solar flare phase (joking) this whole ordeal knows as the MM is yo-yo for most and as a result a bunch of win rates now live near 50. In fact, if you currently enjoy a rate over 50, you clearly are invoking way too much damage for your own good and are now statistically asking for it.
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Post by lilryry on Mar 24, 2017 14:28:19 GMT -5
Literally can not get below a 40% win rate so I wonder how accurate the number really is, been sittingg at 40 and losing far more matches than I'm winning and it won't go down any farther
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Post by Deleted on Mar 24, 2017 15:57:36 GMT -5
Literally can not get below a 40% win rate so I wonder how accurate the number really is, been sittingg at 40 and losing far more matches than I'm winning and it won't go down any farther You have to undermine your teammates via tanking, then 20% or even lower is possible. As long as you are trying, it won't go really low. I believe there is a reliability/effectiveness metric that is being tracked to allow the MM a high degree of control over what you experience in terms of "streaks" - nothing like dropping a "dud" player on your team to increase the chance of a loss. I believe it is in the self-interest of Pix to create a "streaky" system, as repeated losses are more likely to trigger players to believe they need to upgrade. If you are in a more win one / lose one environment, then your motivation will be different (even though the long term average win percentage would end up the same). |
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Post by lilryry on Mar 24, 2017 17:31:06 GMT -5
Literally can not get below a 40% win rate so I wonder how accurate the number really is, been sittingg at 40 and losing far more matches than I'm winning and it won't go down any farther You have to undermine your teammates via tanking, then 20% or even lower is possible. As long as you are trying, it won't go really low. I believe there is a reliability/effectiveness metric that is being tracked to allow the MM a high degree of control over what you experience in terms of "streaks" - nothing like dropping a "dud" player on your team to increase the chance of a loss. I believe it is in the self-interest of Pix to create a "streaky" system, as repeated losses are more likely to trigger players to believe they need to upgrade. If you are in a more win one / lose one environment, then your motivation will be different (even though the long term average win percentage would end up the same). well I'm on one hell of a losing streak, it's been all week losing 5 to win one, and like I said I've lost 4 or 5 today and my win% hasn't gone down at all, been at 40% through 5 losses, I would've though it would go down at least a point or 2. I'm really thinking there's some hidden things within this mm to encourage people to buy things and between that and them lying about the tankers league I can't trust any system they implement, they're gonna profit themselves out of business when people start catching on |
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Post by Thunderkiss on Mar 24, 2017 18:41:06 GMT -5
My poor explanation:
Over the course of 50 matches, you accumulate a record that *could* be examined thusly:
Win win lose lose lose lose win win lose etc.
Once you hit #50, #51 drops off. So if 51 was a loss, then if you lose your next game, nothing changes, because you replaced a loss with a loss. Replace a win with a win, no net change. So if in the course of your 50 current games, the oldest 5 stats are losses, your newest 5 can also be losses and your net win % won't change. Same with wins.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 24, 2017 23:40:24 GMT -5
Bounce between 50 - 60. Go over 60 and the MM strikes back, lame team mates and overwhelming opposition. iOS diamond 3.
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Post by lilryry on Mar 25, 2017 3:41:37 GMT -5
My poor explanation: Over the course of 50 matches, you accumulate a record that *could* be examined thusly: Win win lose lose lose lose win win lose etc. Once you hit #50, #51 drops off. So if 51 was a loss, then if you lose your next game, nothing changes, because you replaced a loss with a loss. Replace a win with a win, no net change. So if in the course of your 50 current games, the oldest 5 stats are losses, your newest 5 can also be losses and your net win % won't change. Same with wins. makes sense, still don't think my win% is an accurate representation of what the matches have been for me lately, My team is getting our 「multiple dookie delivery chute」 handed to us almost every game |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 25, 2017 4:25:40 GMT -5
OP you didn't have a category for moving, below 50 and above 50 like a yo-yo
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Post by justsomeguy on Mar 25, 2017 11:10:41 GMT -5
Bounce between 50 - 60. Go over 60 and the MM strikes back, lame team mates and overwhelming opposition. iOS diamond 3. My experience is as follows. Started Silver III and climbed to Silver II. My win rate at that time was 64%, so naturally I was placed into Diamond match next, presumably to balance out the one red Expert player. When I qualified for the third time, with much more acceptable win rate of 52%, the matches were more or less balanced. Once again I hit 60%+ with the rating at about 1450 and went through a streak of losses, which sent me back to 1307 points with 46% win rate. So far everything goes as expected. Now the interesting part. From that moment on, I am on a winning streak (it's not exactly a streak, there are losses too but few and far between) that brought me to the gates of Gold (some 350 points up in three days or so). I am at 72% win rate, highest I ever been, and even though I see some lances or a fury here and there the battles are O.K. as well as teammates. So, either MM is planning something BIG in the near future, or things are getting better. I think, MM is trying to prepare you for the things to come when you're "between the leagues" and it tries to challenge you more when your win rate is too high (it can get a little rough, especially when both happens at the same time). That may get more difficult way up the pyramid, where there is much less players to choose from, of course. Don't get me wrong, my winning streak is going to end and there will still be plenty of frustrating matches to endure. The system is not perfect by any means, but I am hopeful (and yes to the subject question, by the way). |
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Post by hyderier on Mar 26, 2017 3:20:38 GMT -5
Interesting result is, that nobody here is consistently below 50%, and only a few wide swingers and one possible "fooling around". It is probably selection bias: anybody who reads these forums is bound to pick up at least few effective tactics and tips, so will play better than average.
Still, I think this quite conclusively shows, that there's no strong pressure towards 50% at the moment. From comments, there may be some MM effect of >60% or >70% win rate, but it could also be random chance and natural swinging.
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Post by lilryry on Mar 26, 2017 16:42:27 GMT -5
Interesting result is, that nobody here is consistently below 50%, and only a few wide swingers and one possible "fooling around". It is probably selection bias: anybody who reads these forums is bound to pick up at least few effective tactics and tips, so will play better than average. Still, I think this quite conclusively shows, that there's no strong pressure towards 50% at the moment. From comments, there may be some MM effect of >60% or >70% win rate, but it could also be random chance and natural swinging. we must be reading different forums then because several posters have stated them allows them to win until they hit a certain percentage and then they go into free fall with uneven matches until the mm decides they get to win again. |
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Post by hyderier on Mar 26, 2017 23:20:28 GMT -5
Interesting result is, that nobody here is consistently below 50%, and only a few wide swingers and one possible "fooling around". It is probably selection bias: anybody who reads these forums is bound to pick up at least few effective tactics and tips, so will play better than average. Still, I think this quite conclusively shows, that there's no strong pressure towards 50% at the moment. From comments, there may be some MM effect of >60% or >70% win rate, but it could also be random chance and natural swinging. we must be reading different forums then because several posters have stated them allows them to win until they hit a certain percentage and then they go into free fall with uneven matches until the mm decides they get to win again. Could be, but still according to this poll, those are a minority (currently 5 wild swingers). Or there might be those who swing above 50%, but purpose of this poll was to determine wether consistently "positive" win rate, and therefore getting league points without max damage. This is clearly the case. Also, note selection bias and statistical uselessness of anecdotes. When one complains about wild swings, a few others with same experience might join the thread etc. So you see what looks like a lot of people havong the problem. Those who don't see wild swings won't respond en masse. So having a few who complain doesn't say anything about how common the problem is. |
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Post by carnage on Mar 27, 2017 4:46:55 GMT -5
I was constantly around 60% until I entered into a crazy serial of losses a few days ago. I guess I probably had something like 2 victories in 20 games, and what was weird is that I always finished as one of the best of the loser team, often the best. But for some reasons, I kept being pulled into teams that had zero chances to win.
Because of those losses I went down to 40% and dropped to the Gold league.
Things went back to normal since then and I came back into Diamond. No idea what happened, if that was an incredible amount of bad luck, or if there is a hidden parameter that I don't understand.
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