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Post by cmdrperalta on Dec 4, 2017 14:25:26 GMT -5
I decided some time ago to only do the free pick on all of the new games Pixo is introducing. Today's game "True Sniper" is for a Butch, which i have always wanted but would never shell out the $$ for. Guess what Santapix sent early? First spin, 0 Au. Anyone else having any luck with these? Post your winners in the comments thread.  |
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Post by endyu on Dec 4, 2017 14:29:12 GMT -5
I did the 1st and 2nd spins on both offers... this makes me want to try for 3rds on both. Congrats!
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Post by hon_shu on Dec 4, 2017 14:43:02 GMT -5
Probably a bug, I'm sure we'll see 3.4.2 hit any minute  |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2017 14:56:36 GMT -5
Nope....still in order from lowest up. I only do 3 and then that's it. I do note that Pix have added in more silver rewards so you can't exclude them all to start.
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Post by darthbobafett on Dec 4, 2017 15:05:22 GMT -5
I decided some time ago to only do the free pick on all of the new games Pixo is introducing. Today's game "True Sniper" is for a Butch, which i have always wanted but would never shell out the $$ for. Guess what Santapix sent early? First spin, 0 Au. Anyone else having any luck with these? Post your winners in the comments thread. No fair! :0  |
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Post by Refuse2GrowUp on Dec 4, 2017 15:08:58 GMT -5
I decided some time ago to only do the free pick on all of the new games Pixo is introducing. Today's game "True Sniper" is for a Butch, which i have always wanted but would never shell out the $$ for. Guess what Santapix sent early? First spin, 0 Au. Anyone else having any luck with these? Post your winners in the comments thread. Lol, a clandestine Pix employee trying to hype us up  Congrats. It's a fun bot |
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Post by Joopiter on Dec 4, 2017 15:09:41 GMT -5
I don't think it's completely rigged. I got a hover on the ~1300au spin... well worth it. I think that left 3 more spins. Although, I'd be scared to see what the stats are behind actually getting a bot on the first spin!
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Post by Jame-thon on Dec 4, 2017 15:18:29 GMT -5
wow, interesting to see. Rate must be really low then, none the less, grats.
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Post by hon_shu on Dec 4, 2017 15:19:49 GMT -5
It's not so hard to actually understand this. The outcome is based on a random number generator. The odds of winning are heavily skewed towards the lower prizes. Anyone with a basic understanding of programming should be able to code this in 20 minutes. For example (on your first roll)
20% 25k Ag
15% 12h Premium
10% 50k Ag
..
0.001% Butch (that's our OP)
As prizes are "won", the other ones become more likely accordingly. If you weren't lucky, on your last roll
100% Butch
This is either done by repeatedly spinning until a prize is selected that is still available (very inefficient, because in my example this would require some 100000 rolls to be computed for the butch) or simply by scaling up the probabilities.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2017 15:36:23 GMT -5
I have to say that I just split my betting between the two butch Royale games. That was the 1st mistake. Blew through nearly 2000 Gold (500 of which was free from event),that was the 2nd mistake, and got:
Royale:
5 x Ag
1 x 50 Au
1 x Thunder
BM
3 Ag
2 x Premium
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Post by hyderier on Dec 4, 2017 15:43:22 GMT -5
I wonder if this Butch game actually has less skewed probabilities... But still quite skewed, most likely, looking at the post above.
If that is the case, I predict, based purely on feeling, that the card flipping version is less skewed.
Edit: Nah. Did spins for maybe a 100 Au total on the two Butch games. Won just silver. And I excluded as much low silver prizes as I could. So while the odds could be a little bit better, maybe, they're not much better. Probably not at all, at least that's the safe assumption. So if you want to get a Butch, be prepared to go all the way in one game. It is not a gambling minigame. It is a way to buy Butch!
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inspirace
Trusted Contributor 
Posts: 2,670
Karma: 2,959
Pilot name: inspirace
Platform: iOS
Clan: NEW
League: Champion
Server Region: North America
Favorite robot: Rog, Griff, Carn, Doc, Rhino, Haechi, Kumiho, Bulgasari, Mender, Inquisitor, Spectre, Strider,
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Post by inspirace on Dec 4, 2017 15:48:13 GMT -5
I actually plan to spend some Au for the Doc game, if it come along. It will be still cheaper than direct purchase (7500Au) even in the worst case, I guess? Doc can be rigged in so many ways, so a second won’t be that bad. I already won a Butch from previous event spin, and it hasn’t been barely unwrapped, sitting forever at level 1,
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Post by cmdrperalta on Dec 4, 2017 16:19:20 GMT -5
I think the moral of the story is, don't gamble on buying one of these. There is no downside to just doing the free spins and sometimes you will get lucky.
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Post by targetnumber2 on Dec 4, 2017 17:11:09 GMT -5
I got the next best prize, or the best depending on what your needs are. My second spin got me 100,000 silver.  |
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Post by Refuse2GrowUp on Dec 4, 2017 17:21:23 GMT -5
I got the next best prize, or the best depending on what your needs are. My second spin got me 100,000 silver. Wow, congrats |
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Post by amidf on Dec 4, 2017 17:31:49 GMT -5
It's not so hard to actually understand this. The outcome is based on a random number generator. The odds of winning are heavily skewed towards the lower prizes. Anyone with a basic understanding of programming should be able to code this in 20 minutes. For example (on your first roll) 20% 25k Ag 15% 12h Premium 10% 50k Ag .. 0.001% Butch (that's our OP) As prizes are "won", the other ones become more likely accordingly. If you weren't lucky, on your last roll 100% Butch This is either done by repeatedly spinning until a prize is selected that is still available (very inefficient, because in my example this would require some 100000 rolls to be computed for the butch) or simply by scaling up the probabilities. Yes, you get it. I've been turning blue trying to explain this. The simple way to code it is to give each prize a numerical value where they all add up to, let's say, 100000. The Butch gets 1 (1 in 100000 is 0.001%). The worst prize might be 10000. Each time the game is played, sum the values of all items still remaining. The chance for eqch item is its value divided by that sum. |
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Post by hon_shu on Dec 4, 2017 17:51:45 GMT -5
It's not so hard to actually understand this. The outcome is based on a random number generator. The odds of winning are heavily skewed towards the lower prizes. Anyone with a basic understanding of programming should be able to code this in 20 minutes. For example (on your first roll) 20% 25k Ag 15% 12h Premium 10% 50k Ag .. 0.001% Butch (that's our OP) As prizes are "won", the other ones become more likely accordingly. If you weren't lucky, on your last roll 100% Butch This is either done by repeatedly spinning until a prize is selected that is still available (very inefficient, because in my example this would require some 100000 rolls to be computed for the butch) or simply by scaling up the probabilities. Yes, you get it. I've been turning blue trying to explain this. The simple way to code it is to give each prize a numerical value where they all add up to, let's say, 100000. The Butch gets 1 (1 in 100000 is 0.001%). The worst prize might be 10000. Each time the game is played, sum the values of all items still remaining. The chance for eqch item is its value divided by that sum. Well, a Ph.D. in Computer Engineering has to be good for something after all |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2017 17:53:13 GMT -5
I actually plan to spend some Au for the Doc game, if it come along. It will be still cheaper than direct purchase (7500Au) even in the worst case, I guess? Doc can be rigged in so many ways, so a second won’t be that bad. I already won a Butch from previous event spin, and it hasn’t been barely unwrapped, sitting forever at level 1, Yeah, if a doc or jesse event comes out you better expect me to spend a good amount of gold on that. And there is a very big bright side to this: at least pixo didn't put influence points instead of the WW bots, that would have been horrible. |
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