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Post by moses on Nov 13, 2017 16:36:42 GMT -5
Aaaand here it is: the biggest load of horse crap in - at least - weeks. The psychology of our brains..are you def? SMH How long have you been playing this game? Before you respond, go back to EVERY SINGLE MATCHMAKING THREAD. You might not â??buyâ? it but this is proven through the community -> every player should be at a constant 50% win Rate. Smh If there's a load of ?poo-poo? to be found anywhere, it's in this post right here. I haven't been below 70% for literally months, and it's only been since the halloween patch that i've been below 80%. Anecdotal evidence is not "proof". Yes, yes, yes The sun does not rotate around the earth
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Post by ΒΣRΖΣRKΛ²³ on Nov 13, 2017 23:18:21 GMT -5
Aaaand here it is: the biggest load of horse crap in - at least - weeks. The psychology of our brains..are you def? SMH How long have you been playing this game? Before you respond, go back to EVERY SINGLE MATCHMAKING THREAD. You might not â??buyâ? it but this is proven through the community -> every player should be at a constant 50% win Rate. Smh If there's a load of ?poo-poo? to be found anywhere, it's in this post right here. I haven't been below 70% for literally months, and it's only been since the halloween patch that i've been below 80%. Anecdotal evidence is not "proof". So you’re pointing at anecdotal evidence not being proof by telling me about your personal win rate...hmmmmm...
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Post by Thunderkiss on Nov 13, 2017 23:28:52 GMT -5
Cuts both ways. Except my "evidence" invalidates yours.
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Post by ΒΣRΖΣRKΛ²³ on Nov 13, 2017 23:30:39 GMT -5
Ok so forget about the insults and everything, here’s the catch: HOW does MM try to make the teams equal? HOW can the widespread 50% be a coincidence ? Now there are ways to manipulate your win rate: (To understand this, you need to understand the connection between damage and winning - if you don’t understand this, try an all Cossack hangar for 50 matches, and after that an all griffin hangar for 50 matches) Make lower damage than your league peers: you’ll drop Make more damage than your league peers: you’ll rise. Now if everybody plays 100 matches, nobody but the players control the outcome and everybody wins 50, and everybody loses 50 - then skill is either not a factor, or everybody is equally skilled. So: if you agree that skill is a factor, and one player has more skill then his peers, and nobody but the players control the outcome of 100 matches - this one player will win more than 50%. And this is what’s impossible in this matchmaking. Well, it's not impossible. But until you are top tier it is difficult to maintain a win rate much different than 50% because if you keep adding league points you will eventually be the underdog in terms of skill and (more likely) equipment. The way to maintain a high win rate while being neutral in league points is to consistently score low damage in your wins and losses. Players with beacon-capping hangars are able to do this so long as they contribute to wins but reap few league points from doing so. If I lose 9 of 10 games even though I didn't change the way I play at all, can that be a coincidence or must the game be rigged? Sure, streaks happen and can be a coincidence - but I believe the algorithm shuffles the deck. Anecrodatel evidence: At some point you can feel that you have little to no influence in the outcome of a game. This happens regularly and it is tied to my win percentage.
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Post by moses on Nov 14, 2017 1:05:07 GMT -5
Well, it's not impossible. But until you are top tier it is difficult to maintain a win rate much different than 50% because if you keep adding league points you will eventually be the underdog in terms of skill and (more likely) equipment. The way to maintain a high win rate while being neutral in league points is to consistently score low damage in your wins and losses. Players with beacon-capping hangars are able to do this so long as they contribute to wins but reap few league points from doing so. If I lose 9 of 10 games even though I didn't change the way I play at all, can that be a coincidence or must the game be rigged? Sure, streaks happen and can be a coincidence - but I believe the algorithm shuffles the deck. Anecrodatel evidence: At some point you can feel that you have little to no influence in the outcome of a game. This happens regularly and it is tied to my win percentage. Your feeling here is entirely correct - that often you have limited influence on the outcome of the game - but the correct conclusion there is not that the algorithm is out to get you. The basic idea of this matchmaker is that by setting a single, simple metric (league points) as the only determinant of selection of players for a match they can quickly match players without a complicated algorithm trying to take into account multiple factors and weightings. With such a system the idea is that you (Pixonic) then can leave it alone and the players will naturally trend up or down and spread out and find an equilibrium ranking where they are playing against others where they you would have more or less even odds of winning. So if it was working as intended eventually you would move up / down end up at a league ranking where you trend towards 50% win rate, but there is absolutely no enforced 50% win rate where your winning streak is automatically cut by some algorithm. Pixo has screwed up the implementation and fails to fix it and this makes the whole experience less enjoyable for everyone, but when we complain about it we should avoid complaining about imaginary problems as it distracts from the actual issue.
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ma'ElKoth
GI. Patton
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Post by ma'ElKoth on Nov 14, 2017 4:14:17 GMT -5
Perhaps there will be more responses to increase the sample size. At this point though, it seems 50% is the most common answer. Is that just coincidence in your opinion? Well, right now 40 out of 55 answers state they are above 50% win rate while there is only 15 that are below. It is obvious that the answers do not add up and thus are in no way representative at this point. Would it be representative, there could not be lot of players that win more than half there matches while only a few loose more than half. If it would be representative, the overall average would be at roughly 50%. I have lately tracked 200 matches (entry win rate, outcome, league of players in the match) and while I had been thinking myself - and wanted to get proof by recording the stats - that MM would forcibly try to get you to 50% by increasing/decreasing difficulty, the track record did not show anything like that - at least on a quick glance. Back than, I had started tracking at a win rate of 42%. After only 30 matches I had reached 50% and afterwards it raised and stayed in the higher 50% (and up to 60%) range for another 150 matches. All throughout I could not spot any pattern or any exceptional raise or fall in difficulty while noting down the results. And guess what, as soon as I stopped tracking, it pretty much immediately felt like MM was purposely trying to make me win/loose again. That's why I believe that what xXrobotrippinXx stated is correct: "The psychology in this is that our brains try to make excuses for why things happen. We want more drama than just “that’s just how things work”. So we look for excuses on why things are the way they are"
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Post by ΒΣRΖΣRKΛ²³ on Nov 14, 2017 13:43:01 GMT -5
A big „hmmmmmmm“.
I thought the enforced 50% win rate was a consens of the community.
I’m still certain that I’m right and you’re wrong, ..but I need to think about it.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 14, 2017 14:02:12 GMT -5
I hit 90% win rate today for the first time in... well, a long time anyway. All solo games. A couple of weeks ago, with a similar hangar, I dipped below 50% for a short while. Not saying that MM decides if a player should win or lose, but I am fairly confident that *something* is going on besides usual random distributions. I am also fairly confident that whatever this is, isn't consistent - in other words, I believe Pigsonic regularly makes minor tweaks to their algorithm.
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Post by moses on Nov 14, 2017 15:25:27 GMT -5
A big „hmmmmmmm“. I thought the enforced 50% win rate was a consens of the community. I’m still certain that I’m right and you’re wrong, ..but I need to think about it. Perfectly reasonable approach. One of the only factual points I can offer for consideration is the final section of the update note from June warrobots.net/en/2017/05/22/upcoming-leagues-changes/It describes how they adjusted the maths of the algorithm to factor in that champions league players have a much wider league points spread that slowed down the matchmaking (since it is based around searching up and down for next closest league points). Now that does not conclusively rule out underhanded tweaks on the part of Pixo, but it does put the system described at logical odds with an enforced 50% win rate.
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Post by Cdr. Crimmins on Nov 14, 2017 16:27:02 GMT -5
I have a Google sheet where I track a variety of match stats. I've kept it since mid-Jan and now have records of 1977 matches. Over that time my win rate has been a hair over 50%. Let me check. 50.53% So. A wee bit of data.
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ma'ElKoth
GI. Patton
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Post by ma'ElKoth on Nov 15, 2017 3:26:32 GMT -5
Not saying that MM decides if a player should win or lose, but I am fairly confident that *something* is going on besides usual random distributions. I am also fairly confident that whatever this is, isn't consistent - in other words, I believe Pigsonic regularly makes minor tweaks to their algorithm. This is one thought spooking even in my mind as a possibility still. As stated, I tracked the league scores only and could not spot anything. There are for sure other ways to manipulate. Bot and weapon levels vary a lot within a league, there is a certain level of rock-paper-scissor in the game and all that. Just takes too much time to track hangars of a match as well. However, there is possible explanation for those "streaks" we experience as well. The more matches you loose, the harder you try to win...and possibly the more aggressive you play which might well lead to loose once again. And maybe, that's an explanation even for why I did not have these kind of long streaks while tracking - having to wait for the match to end and it taking some time to get and note down all the scores gave me a couple of minutes in between matches to "cool down", possibly preventing me from raging after loosing a few matches in a row and aiding to keep playing more reasonable. What I can tell is, that while I tracked, the feeling that something is manipulated went away very quick. And it returned very quick once I stopped tracking.
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Post by TravLar on Nov 15, 2017 4:31:46 GMT -5
Such an interesting topic. Some info on the player pool size available to the MM at any given time would go a long way to knowing what the options are. The are a lot of numbers it could evaluate too. Then it needs have objectives. Bear in mind then that its has to apply these to 12 players - it could quickly get convoluted. And time it takes to make matches is clearly a priority too.
IMO, priority #1 would be a fair battle, i.e. a battle between to equal teams. Teams are constructed to be equal in league ranking (tanking and tanking based league ratings seem to be ignored but that's another matter). This immediately gives you a 50% chance of winning. We know maps and spawn areas are closely watched to have a 50% win rate, ergo the changes to Shenzen a while ago.
Priority #2 is that even if you're the weakest player in the team, you shouldn't be totally out-gunned and out-played. They understand this as shown by the old hangar-based MM, and it was supposed to be improved upon by the current MM which uses a point system, supposedly to account for better skills and meta application.
The question is: does Pix worry (or have to worry) about a player having a freak 30 game losing streak? I'd say no, but they'd have simply looked at the numbers. If this is possibility then they have a dilemma. Are they going to put the player in a position where they are more likely to win? That would be an appalling situation. It would mean that MatchMaker is aware of, and involved in, factors that influence the outcome of the game before it begins. This is extremely unlikely. In my view, its immaterial -t hey can rely on the fact that if you flip a coin a 1000 times you'll get more or less 50% heads and 50% tails.
So when we say that the MM will give you a net 50% win rate, that is true, but it is an indirect result of meeting it's other objectives.
Tanking and imbalances in the meta are a separate issue. That Pix has failed to address these, or that they have a different agenda from what a F2P player might want, is clear.
As an aside, I have a sense that figuring out why squad based match-ups are so massively off the mark will give some insight into how MM actually works.
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Post by fιяєfℓαмє on Nov 15, 2017 5:31:58 GMT -5
Around 42% for now.
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Post by Alpha on Nov 15, 2017 8:00:53 GMT -5
it ranges from 35% up to 60% depending on doing tasks or grouping up in squad or just going solo...
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bluestreak
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Post by bluestreak on Nov 15, 2017 8:02:42 GMT -5
On FBGR matches are usually of equal number of Champion, Master, Gold and other leaguers on each team. Like each team can have 1 Champion, 1 Master and 4 Silvers. That implies a MM based on leagues and maybe equal total league points. The system may not take win percentage into consideration but just that when you lose enough points you'll eventually end up where your gear is considered above par and you'll get a higher win percentage. Maybe. I'm just guessing here really. This also means that climb high enough on skill and eventually you'll reach a point where your gear is below par then victories will all be uphill battles.
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Post by Alpha on Nov 15, 2017 8:31:17 GMT -5
On FBGR matches are usually of equal number of Champion, Master, Gold and other leaguers on each team. Like each team can have 1 Champion, 1 Master and 4 Silvers. That implies a MM based on leagues and maybe equal total league points. The system may not take win percentage into consideration but just that when you lose enough points you'll eventually end up where your gear is considered above par and you'll get a higher win percentage. Maybe. I'm just guessing here really. This also means that climb high enough on skill and eventually you'll reach a point where your gear is below par then victories will all be uphill battles. This is true to a certain point, but i still get matched up with inconsistent matches where either i am attacking lower or higher guys, and where i mean higher guys i mean a full load out of the top tier guys (ALL Champions league) and i mean top tier and gear wise as in MkII level 12 full 5 bays of dash bots where the match lasts about a few minutes before all on my team have been blown to smithereens, and i'm guessing here that these guys are on a squad that have qued but because no other squads where queuing the squad got us the PuG group. this has happens me at least three times every day. I also see this when our Squad ques as well.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 15, 2017 9:07:49 GMT -5
Not saying that MM decides if a player should win or lose, but I am fairly confident that *something* is going on besides usual random distributions. I am also fairly confident that whatever this is, isn't consistent - in other words, I believe Pigsonic regularly makes minor tweaks to their algorithm. This is one thought spooking even in my mind as a possibility still. As stated, I tracked the league scores only and could not spot anything. There are for sure other ways to manipulate. Bot and weapon levels vary a lot within a league, there is a certain level of rock-paper-scissor in the game and all that. Just takes too much time to track hangars of a match as well. However, there is possible explanation for those "streaks" we experience as well. The more matches you loose, the harder you try to win...and possibly the more aggressive you play which might well lead to loose once again. And maybe, that's an explanation even for why I did not have these kind of long streaks while tracking - having to wait for the match to end and it taking some time to get and note down all the scores gave me a couple of minutes in between matches to "cool down", possibly preventing me from raging after loosing a few matches in a row and aiding to keep playing more reasonable. What I can tell is, that while I tracked, the feeling that something is manipulated went away very quick. And it returned very quick once I stopped tracking. Yes, this (bolded part) exactly! For the periods where I did track (much shorter than you, 50 games tops) looking for a specific pattern that I thought I'd identified, the numbers didn't match what I expected to find. That said, there are oddities which simply should not occur, like getting the same map 6 times in a row is statistically near-impossible (0.1428^5 = less than 0.01%) but does. Your explanation for loss streaks makes sense - but at the same time I still don't think it's the complete explanation.
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Post by oakwhelie on Nov 15, 2017 9:17:20 GMT -5
Im on my second account and kickass with thunder punisher boa and pinata golem down here in private league
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Post by Cdr. Crimmins on Nov 16, 2017 8:00:09 GMT -5
Up to date. 2,060 matches now. 50.63% win rate.
Thank the sweet Lord I don't have to suffer through BR matches anymore.
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Post by Fry on Nov 16, 2017 9:45:01 GMT -5
%60
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