Ancile counters -- Number crunching

A clan member recently wondered if the upcoming Molot acceleration buff would make it a reasonable Ancile counter AT LONG RANGE, and they asked me to crunch the numbers... So here are the numbers and my thoughts.

Conditions:
1) All Level 10 weapons (because that's what I have)
2) Molot Griffin (because this is the best Molot platform)
3) Single Level 10 Ancile shield (78,000 hit points, 2340 point regen per second)

Scenario 1 (maximum, potential damage)
Assumptions:
1) 100% Molot accuracy
2) Full Molot clip used
3) Static target and shooter

Time (seconds)      Damage per bullet      # Bullets      Gross Damage      Ancile Regen      Net Damage
1                               397                              26                10,322                   2340                  7,982
2                                                                                                                                               7,982
3                                                                                                                                               7,982
4                                                                   52                20,644                                           18,304
5                                                                                                                                             18,304
6                                                                                                                                             18,304
6.5                                                                26                10,322                   1170                  9,152
TOTAL                                                                                                                    TOTAL     88,010


This looks impressive and the total damage is more than enough to take down a Level 10 Ancile....

.....BUT, I would argue that the assumptions for maximum damage are UNrealistic because

1)  Bullet spread ensures <100% accuracy at distance, although the Ancile target is large. And realistically, with Molots, you would be engaging the Ancilot at a range of >400meters.
2)  It is difficult to have a sustained engagement time of 6.5 seconds, in order to use an entire clip
3) It is rare for both target and shooter to be completely static, thus further decreasing accuracy


.......SO, as an arbitrary modifier to try to account for all the variables of a dynamic engagement, I picked a FIFTY PERCENT (50%) hit rate. 


Scenario 2 ("realistic" 50% hit rate)
Time (seconds)      Damage per bullet     # Bullets     Gross Damage     50% Modifier    Ancile Regen      Net Damage
1                               397                            26                10,322                   5,161              2340                    2,821
2                                                                                                                                                                      2,821
3                                                                                                                                                                      2,821
4                                                                 52                20,644                  10,322                                         7,982
5                                                                                                                                                                      7,982
6                                                                                                                                                                      7,982
6.5                                                              26                10,322                    5,161             1170                     3,991
TOTAL                                                                                                                                               TOTAL 36,400


With the 50% modifier, I would guess that in "real life," a Molot Griff could expect to take down about 1/2 of an ancile shield per clip

For comparion (level 10):
Trident Fury => 51,138 damage over 3.5-ish seconds
RDB Griff => 50,904 damage over 1.6 seconds

It is arguable which is more beneficial --  the added range of molots compared to the splash radius of tridents/PIN/tulu, which ensure a higher hit rate and advantage of partially-direct fire.


BOTTOM LINE:
While a Molot Griff has the potential to take down an equivalent level Ancile with a full clip, given "real life" combat situations, I am making an educated guess that it would be reasonable to expect taking away about 1/2 of an Ancile hit point pool with a full clip when engaging an Ancile at medium-long distance.